Back-to-Back in Buffalo: The Challenges of Forecasting & Communicating Two Historic Winter Storms in Western New York

The winter of 2022-2023 was the fifth snowiest on record in Buffalo, NY. The statistic propelled through two historic winter weather events that occurred within six weeks of each other: The November 2022 Lake Effect Event, nicknamed Snowvember 2.0, and the 2022 Christmas Blizzard. Cumulatively, these events left Western New York at a standstill: the New York State Thruway (I-90) was shut down for several days, operations ceased at the Buffalo Niagara International Airport, a National Football League game was relocated to Detroit, forced numerous school and government closures, and, regrettably, the loss of life of 50 people across the greater Buffalo area.

The 2022 November Lake Effect Storm lasted for 60 hours from November 17th through the 20th. It was a classic mesoscale lake effect event, led by persistent 250 mb steering flow and a deep mixed phase layer that supported high snowfall rates of up to 6 inches an hour and thundersnow. It was a well-predicted event with the National Weather Service in Buffalo issuing appropriate Winter Storm Watches to Lake Effect Snow Warnings. The event also resembled a previous lake effect event that, ironically, occurred eight years prior in mid-November of 2014, which was helpful when communicating the scope and potential impacts to the community.

The same could not be said for the 2022 Christmas Blizzard, even though the event forecast was spot on and well-communicated by the National Weather Service in Buffalo and local media partners. This winter storm lasted for five days around the holiday and was the combination of a lake effect snow and wind storm produced by a bomb cyclone that swept through the Great Lakes. Synoptically, it was the perfect, high-impact weather set up. Or as the National Weather Service in Buffalo warned in their now infamous December 21st, 2022 Forecast Discussion, it was to be a “once in a generation” storm. The storm lived up to the description and brought impacts that hadn’t been experienced in Western New York in decades.

The two winter storms couldn't have been more different. Therein lied the challenge for area meteorologists, emergency managers, and public officials who were forecasting, preparing, and communicating the likely historic storms for the City of Buffalo. This presentation will focus on the challenges faced across sectors when communicating the extreme nature of both events within such a short time frame of one another. Additionally, how the public-private partnerships and relationships made prior to these weather events helped mitigate further the loss of life through forecast and impact continuity.