Caught by Surprise: Examining Public Response to Portland's Record February Snow Storm

On February 22, 2023 Portland, Oregon was surprised by a crippling snow storm that dumped a near record 10.8 inches of snow across the region. With a 10% chance the metro area would see an inch of snow, none of the models forecasted the seriousness of this event which caused major disruptions to transportation networks and school and business closures across the region. In the following days, a quick response survey was sent out to better understand how the public responded to this event, information sources used, and influencing factors for any protective actions taken. 4,500 surveys were collected online using Qualtrics survey software. Surveys were disseminated by Portland NWS by posting a survey invitation and link on the WFO website, Facebook and Twitter accounts. Most people (88%) said they were aware of the potential for an event to occur, but just 8% said they were concerned about it indicating the low-end forecast for this snow event. The most common source of information used before the event were the NWS, National News or Weather Company, and Local TV. During the event, environmental cues or “observing the weather” was the most common source of information. Most people (77%) experienced the event indoors, while 18% were in a vehicle. Of the 811 motorists who were driving during the snowstorm, 69% continued driving and made it, while 5% got stuck or had an accident, and 17% turned around or stopped driving. The most influential factors for driving decisions were environmental cues (poor road conditions, intense snowfall), a sense of self-efficacy (confidence in driving and vehicle) and situational factors (needing to get somewhere, congestion, and being caught by surprise). About 1,800 people left comments on their survey, stressing how surprised they were with the rapid snow accumulation given the lack of forecast and warning before the event. Others mentioned how the City was unprepared for this event which led to major congestion and people getting stuck for hours trying to navigate their way home. This event highlights the complexities of effective risk communication for low-probability high impact winter weather events under rapidly changing conditions in urban areas. This study is part of a NOAA Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences (SBES) grant awarded to the University of Massachusetts to disseminate Quick Response Surveys soon after tornado, severe thunderstorm, flash flood, and winter weather events occur. Few studies have examined public response to winter weather events, and especially the impact of winter storm forecasts on drivers’ decisions, thus there is growing need to address this gap in the research. Working with nine Weather Forecast Offices (WFO’s) including Portland, the research team has developed an easy to use method for surveys to be fielded by each WFO and their partners over social media soon after a significant event occurs. The goal is to obtain an operationally feasible and demographically representative convenience sample, examining how different factors influence the publics’ perception and response to weather hazards. Using a bottom-up approach, individual responses will be aggregated across multiple events to arrive at a common framework that will create the building blocks for a multi-year human response database for NOAA.