Part I: Analysis of United States Crop Conditions (1986–2022)

USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service general crop condition data are used to quantify the relationship between crop conditions and yield, condition tendencies during the growing season, how conditions vary across the U.S., and how conditions have trended for the 1986–2022 period for a variety of crops, including: barley (Hordeum vulgare), corn (Zea mays L.), cotton (Gossypium), oats (Avena sativa), peanuts (Arachis hypogaea), rice (Oryza), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor), soybeans (Glycine max), and spring and winter wheat (Triticum aestivum). Crop conditions are a statistically significant covariate (90% significance level) for yield and can be used in practice on a weekly basis. This becomes increasingly important as, historically, crop conditions not only deteriorated on average, but became more variable throughout the growing season. Spatial differences in conditions, variability, and trends in condition ratings and variability attributes to crop selection, regional climate, and management practices such as irrigation. Crop conditions were poorest on average and had the highest interannual variability across the southern Great Plains region. Since 1986, crop conditions in the Great Plains region have deteriorated significantly while variability has increased. Meanwhile, crop conditions across the southwestern and southeastern U.S. have significantly improved, while interannual variability in conditions experienced robust declines. Given projected climatic and hydrologic trends, to maintain a positive trend in yield, continued advancements in production management and technology are required. Critical decisions regarding real-time or future management can be supplemented by using crop condition risk assessment information along with actively monitoring weekly conditions.