Part II: Analysis of United States Pasture and Rangeland Conditions (1995–2022)

Pasturelands prove critical for livestock production, food security, and the overall success of the U.S. agricultural economy. Climatic shifts in temperature and precipitation will impose new challenges for resource managers as pastureland quality declines can result in increased feed supply demand and reduced grazing capacity. This research establishes a pastureland quality climatology by state and month and examines spatiotemporal trends in pastureland quality from 1995–2022 using National Agricultural Statistics Service General Crop/Pastureland Condition data. A statistically significant correlation between pasture quality and precipitation, temperature, Palmer Drought indices confirm the use of the pastureland condition dataset for reliable quantitative assessment. From May–October, pastureland quality tends to decline on average while the interannual variability tends to increase throughout boreal summer. Over the 28-year study period, pasturelands considered in excellent and good condition have reduced in coverage by 3-5%, which is statistically significant to the 90% confidence level. Consequently, this has resulted in a statistically significant 3-8% increase in pasturelands considered in poor and very poor condition at the national level. Spatially, deterioration in pastureland conditions were most prominent across the western domain of the U.S. where decreasing trends in precipitation are projected to increase drought and ultimately challenge the sustainability of the livestock industry. Thus, the need for flexible livestock, forage, and grazing management strategies will be critical in the coming decades in order to adapt to the impacts of climate change on water-sensitive ecosystems.