Closing the Gap Between Observed and Perceived Risks of Extreme Climate and Weather-related Events in the US

Severe heat waves, wildfires, droughts, and floods are among the most visible manifestations of climate change and are the first associations that people have when asked to identify the greatest risks of climate change to the US. This is useful in so far as disaster risks from climate and weather-related hazards can be reduced when people are aware of the threats and respond appropriately. Yet, the extent to which public perceptions are aligned with physical risks is largely unknown. Here we use a large US survey dataset (N = 10,038) aggregated from nine nationally representative surveys conducted between 2018-2022 to estimate worry about five climate and weather-related hazards: wildfires, heat waves, droughts, hurricanes, and flooding. We produce estimates of the percentage of American adults in every county across the contiguous US. We compare hazard-specific risk perceptions with projected future climate risks for each hazard to identify mismatches that may indicate areas where residents are particularly likely to underestimate ongoing and future climate and weather-related risks to their local area. We identify 'hotspots' where projected risks are expected to be high yet perceived risk relatively low. We also discuss the importance of understanding risk perceptions about climate and weather events and how they affect communication and decision making.