The Growing Wildfire Crisis - A NOAA Strategy

The Growing Wildfire Crisis - A NOAA Strategy

Robyn Heffernan

NOAA/NWS Boise, Idaho

Heath Hockenberry

NOAA/NWS Boise, Idaho

Larry Van Bussum

NOAA/NWS Boise, Idaho

Michael Pavolonis

NOAA/NESDIS Madison, WI

Jennifer Mahoney

NOAA/OAR Boulder, CO

Derek Williams

NOAA/NWS Elko, NV

Benjamin Bartos

NOAA/NWS Anchorage, AK

Submitted upon request for an Oral Presentation at the Presidential Session of the AMS 2nd Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice.

Wildfire is a growing threat that spans multiple disciplines and environmental influences, such as weather, fuels, topography, climate, and human factors. Wildfire is increasingly identified as a weather-related natural disaster in the United States. It is now being recognized as a crisis by various agencies such as the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) due to the growing number of acres burned each year, larger and more intense fires, and increasing societal and economic impacts. Recent examples include:

• The Paradise, CA Camp Fire in November, 2018 resulting in 85 civilian fatalities
• The August Complex and Dixie Fires in California (2020 and 2021, respectively) both rank as the largest wildfires in California history by acreage, with the August Complex resulting in 31 deaths
• Most recently, the Lahaina Fire on the Hawaiian island of Maui in August 2023 is the 5th deadliest wildfire in US history with 115 confirmed fatalities

The Wildfires and Hurricanes Disaster Supplemental and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021 provided significant one-time immediate federal investments to confront the wildfire crisis. In addition, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act required the Department of Agriculture, Department of the Interior, and Department of Homeland Security, through the Federal Emergency Management Agency, to form the Wildland Fire Mitigation and Management Commission. The Commission was tasked with forming federal policy recommendations and strategies to better prevent, manage, suppress and recover from wildfires. The Commission report was delivered to Congress in September, 2023. Also, in 2022, the USFS initiated a 10-year strategy aimed at protecting communities and improving resilience to wildfire. This strategy is a result of the growing emphasis on wildfire impacts as a natural disaster in the nation and reflects on fire as a natural component of the overall ecosystem.

With increased attention to wildland fire, and the critical role weather plays, NOAA must be postured to support the increased demand for fire weather observations, tools and services. The increase in wildfire activity and resulting impacts have resulted in a higher demand on resources, including the National Weather Service’s Incident Meteorologists (IMETs). On-site weather support is now being requested for prescribed burning operations due to the size and nature of these landscape-scale operations while emphasizing safety as the top priority. While prescribed/beneficial fire is not directly related to the emergency nature of responding to wildfire, it is a fuel reduction technique used to mitigate the threat of damaging wildfire. Remote sensing technologies, such as satellites, are being used to detect and notify land management and emergency management officials of emerging incidents for faster response times. Satellite mapping of burn scars are improving the ability to warn for deadly post-fire debris flows. Modeling improvements of smoke concentrations and trajectories are enabling protective actions to public health threats far beyond the flames.

Wildfire prevention, resilience and response is a combination of key partnerships. These partnerships span across jurisdictions, spatial scales and disciplines known as the wildland fire enterprise, however, they all converge with the common mission of saving lives and property. This presentation will discuss the details of the NOAA strategic response, through partnerships, to the growing threat and impacts of wildfire.