Wildfires, Weather, and Climate Change in the Mid-Atlantic

Wildfires are generally understudied in the mid-Atlantic United States. High population density near forests throughout the mid-Atlantic puts more people at risk when wildfires occur. We aimed to gain an understanding of weather conditions leading up to naturally caused mid-Atlantic wildfires and if fire risk forecasting criteria aligned with the fire event. Daily observations of the year preceding the fire were studied and compared to 30-year climatological normals for each fire location. The variables studied were max/min/mean temperature, mean dewpoint, max/min vapor pressure deficit, and precipitation totals. A student’s t-test was performed to show statistically whether these observations aligned with the 30-year normals. We looked at archives of the Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) fire weather outlooks to confirm if there was a fire risk forecasted the day of the fire. Results show that precipitation totals for both one month and two months leading up to the fires were significantly below the 30-year norms. Other variables did not demonstrate clear patterns between observed and 30-year normals at the one-month timescale. The SPC did not officially forecast risk for any of the fires from our sample. It would be valuable to study these variables at different time scales, more specifically for the week prior to the fires. Evaluating additional fire risk forecasting systems would also be useful. An increased understanding of the patterns leading up to wildfires on the east coast can help improve fire risk forecasting. Additionally, future work exploring climate change scenarios related to precipitation patterns explored in this work will improve preparedness in the face of shifting wildfire regimes.