Deriving an Index to Assist with Forecasting Convective Outflows in the Western United States

Thunderstorms can create large downdrafts and strong outflow boundaries when they decay. When these interact with ongoing wildfires, they can have serious impacts on fire behavior, wildland firefighter safety, and significant property loss. Notable events where this occurred are the Yarnell Hill Fire (2013), the Dude Fire (1990), also in Arizona, and the Waldo Canyon Fire (2012). The Yarnell Hill Fire and the Dude Fire both resulted in firefighter fatalities, and the Waldo Canyon Fire saw the greatest loss of property from fire in the state of Colorado at the time. To improve safety from these types of events on the fire line, I created a forecasting method involving radar, surface, and upper-air data. This data includes relative humidity, theta-e, upper-air soundings (DCAPE), and SPC forecasts for some of these events. This forecasting method seeks to compile the different layers of weather data and create a numerically derived index for the potential for gusty and strong outflows from thunderstorms, specifically in the western United States. The end goal of this project is to improve the efficiency and accuracy of forecasting convective outflows to potentially give better warning lead times for these dangerous events, as well as to have this index available for public and private use by meteorologists in both sectors.