Description:

There is an increasing need for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction models with sufficient fidelity to provide actionable predictions over the two-week to two-year timescale.  While needs may be regionally focused, they can only be predicted by global models at these timescales, due to cross-scale feedbacks and interactions as well as interactions between earth system model components.  Earth system models need to be able to faithfully represent details of tropical convection, MJO, monsoons, and their teleconnections with midlatitude weather and climate.  Additionally, global models need to appropriately represent the changing Arctic/Antarctic conditions, and their impacts on midlatitude systems. NOAA is anticipating the implementation of a subseasonal to seasonal weather/climate prediction system from NOAA’s Unifying Forecast System (UFS). However, present global models are not meeting this need; indeed, internal biases within the modeling systems show up at very early stages and propagate through the modeling system.  

This third session in a three part S2S-focused series invites presentations addressing ongoing model improvement efforts geared at identifying, diagnosing, and correcting these problems in order to improve earth system models and their utility for S2S timescale prediction. While this session focuses on model developments and innovations, Parts 1 and 2 highlight stakeholder needs and prediction/predictability, respectively.