Session Probabilistic Forecasting, Uncertainty Analysis, and Verification of High Impact Weather Events


Description:

This session seeks presentations that present the use of probability and uncertainty analysis or advanced verification or validation techniques in the areas of High Impact Weather Events such as Fire, Severe Storms, Tropical Cyclones, Hydrometerological and others.


Papers:
Verification of Probabilistic Temperature Forecasts in the NWS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE)
Leslie R. Colin, NWS, Boise, ID

Evaluating the Performance of NSSL’s Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System using the METplus Verification Scorecard
Brian C. Matilla, Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations, The Univ. of Oklahoma, and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf, P. S. Skinner, T. A. Jones, J. Martin, and K. H. Knopfmeier

How skillful are high-resolution ensemble means in capturing warm-season extreme precipitation events?
Diana Rose Stovern, ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. L. Bytheway, K. M. Mahoney, S. M. Trojniak, J. Correia Jr., B. J. Moore, and M. R. Hughes

A preliminary dive into the climatology of the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) heavy rainfall probabilities
Sarah Marie Trojniak, CIRES-CIESRDS @ NOAA/NWS/WPC/HMT, College Park, MD; and J. Correia Jr., J. L. Bytheway, D. R. Stovern, and K. M. Mahoney

Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023



See more of: 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics
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