Session 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics


Session
Comparison of Machine Learning with Simple Statistical Methods
Host: 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
Calibrating Multi-Scale Deterministic and Probabilistic Forecasts
Ziqiang Huo, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, JiangSu, China; and P. Liu and Y. Wang


Session
Ensemble and Multimodel Forecasting
Host: 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
Development of a Model Blending Capability for the United States Air Force*
Timothy Bonin, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and P. M. Stepanian, D. Morse, and J. C. Pena

12:00 AM
Probabilistic Prediction of Agricultural Spray Drift and Deposition Using a LES Ensemble
John Manobianco, BASF, Newtown, PA; and D. J. W. Zack

12:00 AM
Post-Processing of the National Blend of Models Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature Percentiles to Obtain a Single Value Solution
David E. Rudack, NWS, Silver Spring, MD; NWS, Silver Spring, MD

12:00 AM
Evaluation of QPF from NCAR's 5.5 and 8.5 Day Convection-Allowing Ensembles Against WPC and Operational Guidance
Benjamin S. Albright, SAIC, Gaithersburg, MD; and J. A. Nelson Jr. and C. S. Schwartz

12:00 AM
Spatial Aligned Mean Ensemble Consensus Method Applied to CAM Precipitation Forecasts in the 2023 FFaIR Experiment
Chang Jae Lee, CAPS, Norman, OK; and K. A. Brewster and P. Spencer

12:00 AM
A Visibility Risk-Assessment Tool for Maritime Operations
Kathryn Lynn Verlinden, PhD, Applied Ocean Sciences, Springfield, VA

12:00 AM
Optimizing Downscaling Strategy through Selective Culling of NOAA Operational Forecast Ensemble for Cost-effective Prediction
Guangwei Li, University of Maryland at college park, Greenbelt, MD; Univ. of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD; and C. Sun and X. Z. Liang


Session
Extreme Value Analysis and Prediction
Host: 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023

Session
Future of ensemble/probabilistic forecasting, decision support, or forecast verification/evaluation.
Hosts: (Joint between the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; and the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics )
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
Advances in Freezing Rain Accumulation Verification, Reporting Practices, Communication, and Governance
Eric M. Guillot, NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and S. Perfater, M. Muccilli, and A. Lamers

12:00 AM
An Update on Recent Development with the National Blend of Models
Steven L. Levine, NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. E. Rudack, R. James, E. Engle, S. Scallion, C. Buxton, A. Schnapp, S. Perfater, G. Manikin, W. Yan, B. Haynes, and G. G. Leone

12:00 AM
Methods of ensemble forecasting of rainfall variability in tropical West Africa
Athul Rasheeda Satheesh, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Knippertz, A. H. Fink, E. Walz, and T. Gneiting

12:00 AM
19 April 2023 severe weather event: How NSSL research can contribute to probabilistic IDSS
Kodi L. Berry, NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. E. Reinhart, P. C. Burke, M. A. Wagner, A. Gerard, L. J. Hopper Jr., P. Heinselman, and E. Rasmussen

12:00 AM
Prescott Dispatch and the National Weather Service: A Partnership made in Impact-Based Decision Support Services
Valerie Meola, NWS, Bellemont, AZ; and R. Roakes

12:00 AM
Data-driven one-day probabilistic forecasts of precipitation occurrence and amount for northern tropical Africa
Eva Walz, Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies, Heidelberg, Baden-Wuerrtemberg, Germany; and G. Köhler, A. H. Fink, P. Knippertz, and T. Gneiting

12:00 AM
Analysis of summer heavy rainfall pattern types in East Asia of the Korean Integrated Model (KIM)
Ju Heon Kim, Pukyong National University (PKNU), Busan, South Korea, 48, South korea; and J. H. Sim, H. R. Kim, and B. M. Kim

12:00 AM
Examining the Performance of the National Blend of Models During High Impact Winter Weather in New England
Christopher Gilberti, NWS, Cortlandt Manor, NY


Joint Session on Terrestrial and Space Weather General Model Validation Techniques
Hosts: (Joint between the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; and the 21st Conference on Space Weather )
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
A Methodology to Predict the Geomagnetic Field with Confirmatory Evidence from the Polar Region in Canada
Kevin F Forbes, Energy and Environmental Data Science, Malahide, D, Ireland


Session
Novel Methods in Postprocessing and Verification
Host: 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
Cloud Regime Verification using Enhanced Model Evaluation Tools
Hui Christophersen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Nachamkin, W. Davis, and E. Satterfield

12:00 AM
Predictability of Rainfall over Equatorial East Africa in the ECMWF raw and post processed Ensemble Hindcast on short to medium-range time scales
Simon Ageet, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe, Germany; and A. H. Fink, M. Maranan, and B. Schulz

12:00 AM
The Environmental Modeling Center Verification System (EVS): Real-time verification of Unified Forecast System (UFS) models
Jason J. Levit, EMC, Silver Spring, MD; and G. Manikin, A. M. Bentley, L. C. Dawson, and T. L. Jensen

12:00 AM
Assessing the Use of Ensemble Regression and Time-Lagged Ensembles on GEFS Forecasts of Temperature and Precipitation
Justin Hicks, CPC, College Park, MD; ERT, Inc., Laurel, MD

12:00 AM
Leveraging METcalcpy and METplotpy for Enhanced Ensemble Weather Forecasting Verification
Vanderlei Vargas Jr., CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; NOAA/GSL, Boulder, CO; DTC, Boulder, CO; and J. Beck, M. Win-Gildenmeister, H. Fisher, G. Ketefian, M. A. Harrold, M. J. Kavulich Jr., W. Mayfield, and L. Bernardet


Session
Other Topics in Probability and Statistics
Host: 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
An Update on the use of METplus at the Naval Research Laboratory
Elizabeth Satterfield, NRL, Monterey, CA; and W. Davis, G. C. Carl, M. G. Fearon, D. Kuhl, J. Ma, P. Caffrey, H. Christophersen, and J. I. Rubin

12:00 AM
Predicting Precipitation Using Stochastics and Uncertainty Quantification
Thomas Chen, Columbia University, New York, NY; and H. Park


Session
Phenomena-based Verification and Validation Methods
Host: 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023

Physical Interpretability in Machine Learning
Host: 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023

Physical Interpretability of Empirical Models
Hosts: (Joint between the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; and the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics )
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
Meteorological Interpretation of XAI Output Applied to a 3D Convolutional Neural Network Fog Prediction Model
Waylon G. Collins, NOAA/National Weather Service, Corpus Christi, TX; and E. Krell, P. E. Tissot, and S. A. King


Probabilistic Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis: Theory and Application
Hosts: (Joint between the 38th Conference on Hydrology; and the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics )
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
Analysis of the Characteristics of the Low-level Jets in the MiddleReaches of the Yangtze River during the Mei-yu Season
chunguang cui Sr., Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration，Wuhan, Wuhan, Hubei, China

12:00 AM
A Study on the Enhancement Mechanism of the Eastward Moving Convective Clouds over the Tibetan Plateau and their Enhancement in the Secondary Terrain
wang xiaofang, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration，Wuhan, Wuhan, Hubei, China

12:00 AM
Vertical Structures of Raindrop Size Distributions over Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River during Meiyu Period in 2020
Bin Wang, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan, Wuhan, Hubei, China; and L. Zhou, Z. Fu, and G. Xu

12:00 AM
Quantify and Evaluate the Forecast Uncertainty from Global Ensemble Forecast System
Yuejian Zhu, EMC, College Park, MD

12:00 AM
Symbiotic Relationship between Mei-Yu Rainfall and the Morphology of Mei-Yu Front
Xiaokang Wang, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan, Hubei, China

12:00 AM
Study on Hydrological and Rainfall Characteristics and Circulation Anomalies in Autumn Flood Season of HanJiang River in 2021
Xu Ming, CIMMS, Wuhan, Hubei Province, HuBei, China

12:00 AM
Impacts of Combining Various Types of Perturbation Methods on Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasting of Precipitation during SCMREX
Xubin Zhang, Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA, Guangzhou, China

12:00 AM
The Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service - Overview and Future Development
Mark A. Fresch, NWS, Silver Spring, MD

12:00 AM
Convective-scale ensemble forecasts of the heavy precipitation of Typhoon Lekima (2019) in Zhejiang Province
Huiling Yuan, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 32, China; and F. Xu

12:00 AM
Interactions of Stream Water with Atmospheric Water and Groundwater in Herring Run, Baltimore, Maryland
Yi Liu, Morgan State University, Baltimore, MD


Session
Probabilistic Forecasting, Uncertainty Analysis, and Verification of High Impact Weather Events
Host: 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
Verification of Probabilistic Temperature Forecasts in the NWS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE)
Leslie R. Colin, NWS, Boise, ID

12:00 AM
Evaluating the Performance of NSSL’s Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System using the METplus Verification Scorecard
Brian C. Matilla, Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations, The Univ. of Oklahoma, and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf, P. S. Skinner, T. A. Jones, J. Martin, and K. H. Knopfmeier

12:00 AM
How skillful are high-resolution ensemble means in capturing warm-season extreme precipitation events?
Diana Rose Stovern, ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. L. Bytheway, K. M. Mahoney, S. M. Trojniak, J. Correia Jr., B. J. Moore, and M. R. Hughes

12:00 AM
A preliminary dive into the climatology of the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) heavy rainfall probabilities
Sarah Marie Trojniak, CIRES-CIESRDS @ NOAA/NWS/WPC/HMT, College Park, MD; and J. Correia Jr., J. L. Bytheway, D. R. Stovern, and K. M. Mahoney


Probabilistic Forecasts and Verification for Aviation
Host: 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023

Role of Verification Synthesis Methods to Aid in Decision Making  in the Transition from Research to Operations
Hosts: (Joint between the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; and the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations )
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
Initial Development of GSL’s Interactive Verification Scorecard Tool
Molly B. Smith, NOAA/GSL - CIRES, Boulder, CO; and R. Pierce, I. McGinnis, G. Padmanabhan, J. A. Hamilton, B. Strong, D. D. Turner, and M. S. Wandishin


Session
Role of Verification Synthesis Tools in Decision Making for the Transition from Research to Operations
Host: 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023

Session
Statistical Estimation Methods, Statistical Significance Testing, and Hypothesis Testing
Host: 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023

Statistics and Machine Learning for Climate Science
Hosts: (Joint between the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science )
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
The Climate Change Deniers are Wrong: Evidence from NOAA's Barrow Atmospheric Observatory in Alaska
Kevin F Forbes, Energy and Environmental Data Science, Malahide, D, Ireland

12:00 AM
A Subseasonal U.S. Tornado Outbreak Index: Empirical Relationship between Outbreak-level Tornado Occurrence and the Large-scale Environment
Kelsey M. Malloy, Columbia University, New York, NY; Columbia University, New York, NY; and M. K. Tippett

12:00 AM
Constraining the Simulated Radiative Effects of Biomass Burning in Southern Africa
Victor Alejandro Sanchez, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA; Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA; and J. Carzon, M. Kuusela, and H. Gordon

12:00 AM
Parameterizing Cloud Microphysics with Machine Learning-Enabled Bayesian Parameter Inference
Kaitlyn Loftus, Columbia University, New York, NY; and M. van Lier-Walqui, H. Morrison, K. K. Chandrakar, PhD, M. A. Bhouri, and S. P. Santos


Session
Use of Probability and Statistics in the Classroom
Host: 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023