Session El Niño Southern Oscillation: Dynamics, Prediction and Projection


Description:

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of variability in the tropical Pacific at interannual timescales. Given its large-scale influence and global impacts, understanding, predicting and projecting ENSO and potential changes in ENSO is of great societal relevance. ENSO events are the result of complex ocean-atmosphere feedbacks, mediated by influences from the extra-tropical Pacific as well as Atlantic and Indian Oceans which may be stochastic in nature. As a result, ENSO events are very diverse in their initiation, development, demise, and spatial patterns, posing great challenges to our ability to predict them. Climate change is also expected to alter ENSO characteristics and the associated local and remote impacts. This session invites contributions that explore all aspects of ENSO, including its dynamics, diversity, predictability and prediction, teleconnections, impacts, and future projections from observational, theoretical and modeling perspectives. Contributions that examine the role of inter-basin interactions on ENSO development and diversity are also welcome.


Papers:
Model-analog Forecasts of ENSO: Evaluation Against Assimilation-Initialized Forecasts from GFDL SPEAR
Fanrong Zeng, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ; and A. T. Wittenberg

Identifying Precursors of Springtime El Niño False Alarms
Emily Faith Wisinski, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. J. Molina and M. L. L'Heureux

Interference of ENSO on North American Precipitation Associated with Aleutian Low/PNA Variability
Sarah Larson, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and Y. Okumura, K. Bellomo, and M. Breeden

The Asymmetric Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Modulation on Daily Temperature Variability over North America
Michael L Brown, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. Larson and E. J. Becker

Precipitation Variability and Predictability over Central Southwest Asia and Southern Africa During Boreal Winter
Moetasim Ashfaq, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and M. Horan, F. Kucharski, and N. Johnson

Geomagnetic Storm Impacts on the Lower Atmosphere: Connections Between the Hale Cycle, Ap, Kp and ENSO
Robert J. Leamon, University of Maryland - Baltimore County, Washington, DC

Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023