Session 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change


Session
African Climate Change and Variability
Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
Dynamics and Model Representation of Two Contrasting Extreme Precipitation Events in the Sahel
Souleymane Sanogo, Faculté des Sciences et Techniques (FST), Université des Sciences des Techniques et de Technologie de Bamako, Bamako, Mali; and M. Maranan, A. H. Fink, B. J. Woodhams, and P. Knippertz

12:00 AM
The Mechanisms Controlling the Rainy Season Transition Period in the Southern Congo Basin
Sarah Worden, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and R. Fu

12:00 AM
Desert Amplification: the Relative Roles of Direct Greenhouse Gas Forcing and Sea Surface Temperature Change
Li Zhuo, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany

12:00 AM
West African Summer Monsoon Onset Variability and Prediction
William Agyakwah, NOAA, College Park, MD; and Z. T. Segele, E. B. Bekele, and W. M. Thiaw

12:00 AM
A link between warming over northwestern Asia and the recent decline of East African “long rains”
Samson M. Hagos, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA; and P. L. Ma, S. Lubis, M.Sc, Ph.D.,, K. Balaguru, P. Shi, O. Garuba, and L. R. Leung


Artificial Intelligence for Actionable Insights and Applications in Climate Science
Hosts: (Joint between the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; and the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
A transformer-based deep learning model for successful predictions of the 2021 second-year La Niña condition
Rong-Hua Zhang, Qingdao, China

12:00 AM
A Data-Driven Approach to Identifying Key Regions of Change Associated with Future Climate Scenarios
Zachary Labe, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and T. L. Delworth, N. Johnson, and W. Cooke

12:00 AM
Bias Correction of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Precipitation Forecasts using Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Model over Complex Terrain Regions
Md Abul Ehsan Bhuiyan, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, MD; and W. M. Thiaw and E. B. Bekele

12:00 AM
A purely data-driven transformer model for real-time predictions of the 2023-24 climate condition in the tropical Pacific
Rong-Hua Zhang, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China

12:00 AM
ML to Accelerate Actionable Climate Information: the Importance of Uncertainty Quantification
Hannah Christensen, University of Oxford, Oxford, Oxfordshire, United kingdom


Atmospheric Rivers: Processes, Impacts, and Communicating Uncertainty
Hosts: (Joint between the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation )
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
Insights into the Causes and Predictability of the 2022/23 California Flooding
Siegfried Schubert, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; NASA/GSFC and SSAI, Greenbelt, MD; and Y. Chang, A. M. DeAngelis, Y. K. Lim, N. P. Thomas, R. D. Koster, M. G. Bosilovich, A. Molod, A. Collow, and A. Dezfuli

12:00 AM
Dynamical mechanisms underlying the 2022/23 California flooding: Analysis with a stationary wave model
Anthony M. DeAngelis, GMAO, Bowie, MD; and S. Schubert, Y. Chang, Y. K. Lim, N. P. Thomas, R. D. Koster, M. G. Bosilovich, A. Molod, A. Collow, and A. Dezfuli

12:00 AM
ENSO and MJO Effects on North Pacific AR Speed and Propagation
Margarita Mora, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA; and L. Fernandes and P. C. Loikith

12:00 AM
Conditional Relationship Between Atmospheric River Moisture, Wind, and Precipitation in Satellite Observations
Emilio Yanez Jr., Univ. of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and W. Ma and G. Chen

12:00 AM
Analyzing Atmospheric River Reforecasts: Error Patterns and Synoptic-Scale Settings
Greta Katherine Easthom, NC State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann, M. J. Molina, L. DeHaan, J. M. Cordeira, and S. Smith

12:00 AM
Differentiating Between Impactful and Non-Impactful Atmospheric River Events in Southeast Alaska
Deanna L. Nash, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, CA; and J. J. Rutz and A. Jacobs


Session
BAMS State of the Climate 2022, 2023, and beyond
Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
Lightning: An Essential Climate Variable
Steven J. Goodman, Thunderbolt Global Analytics, Owens Cross Roads, AL; and M. Fullekrug, E. Williams, C. Price, and R. H. Holzworth

12:00 AM
The extreme sea surface temperature and marine heatwaves in the global oceans in 2023
Boyin Huang, NOAA, Asheville, NC; and X. Yin, J. Carton, L. Chen, G. Graham, T. Smith, and H. M. Zhang

12:00 AM
Global changes in water vapor from observations and reanalysis products
Olivier Bock, IPGP-IGN, Paris, France; and C. A. Mears, S. P. Ho, X. zhou, and X. Shao

12:00 AM
Global vegetation fires in 2023 as seen by GFAS in CAMS
Johannes W. Kaiser, SatFire Kaiser, Hofheim am Taunus, HE, Germany; NILU – Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller, Norway; and M. Parrington, V. Huijnen, S. Rémy, A. Inness, and J. Flemming

12:00 AM
The Need for Continued Stratospheric Water Vapor Measurements
Karen H. Rosenlof, NOAA, Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and S. M. Davis, PhD, T. Thornberry, and E. Asher


Climate, Environment, Health, and Early Warning
Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023

Session
Clouds, Radiation, Climate Sensitivity and the Pattern of Warming
Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
Influence of Observed Multi-Decadal Southern Ocean SST Variability on the Tropics since 1949
Xiyue Zhang, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD; and C. Deser

12:00 AM
MODIS-based evaluation of low cloud amount indices: “Do the spatiotemporal scales matter?”
Daeho Jin, Univ. of Maryland - BC, Greenbelt, MD; and L. Oreopoulos and D. Lee

12:00 AM
Mechanisms of the pattern effect in CAM6
Margaret L. Duffy, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. Medeiros, A. Gettelman, and R. C. Jnglin Wills


Session
Communicating Climate Change Uncertainty to the Public
Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023

Session
El Niño Southern Oscillation: Dynamics, Prediction and Projection
Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
Model-analog Forecasts of ENSO: Evaluation Against Assimilation-Initialized Forecasts from GFDL SPEAR
Fanrong Zeng, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ; and A. T. Wittenberg

12:00 AM
Identifying Precursors of Springtime El Niño False Alarms
Emily Faith Wisinski, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. J. Molina and M. L. L'Heureux

12:00 AM
Interference of ENSO on North American Precipitation Associated with Aleutian Low/PNA Variability
Sarah Larson, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and Y. Okumura, K. Bellomo, and M. Breeden

12:00 AM
The Asymmetric Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Modulation on Daily Temperature Variability over North America
Michael L Brown, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. Larson and E. J. Becker

12:00 AM
Precipitation Variability and Predictability over Central Southwest Asia and Southern Africa During Boreal Winter
Moetasim Ashfaq, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and M. Horan, F. Kucharski, and N. Johnson

12:00 AM
Geomagnetic Storm Impacts on the Lower Atmosphere: Connections Between the Hale Cycle, Ap, Kp and ENSO
Robert J. Leamon, University of Maryland - Baltimore County, Washington, DC


Session
Explaining Extreme Events from a Climate Perspective
Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
Assessing the impact of the recent warming in the East China Sea on a torrential rain event in northern Kyushu (Japan) in early July 2017
Atsuyoshi Manda, Mie University, Tsu, Mie, Japan; and S. Iizuka, H. Nakamura, and T. Miyasaka

12:00 AM
Why Record-Breaking Extreme Precipitation events tend to occur over Land than Ocean under Global Warming?
William K.M. Lau, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC), College Park, MD; ESSIC, College Park, MD; and K. M. kim, B. Harrop, and L. R. Leung

12:00 AM
Drought properties in Mediterranean under climate change scenarios
Yassmin Hesham Essa, CNR, Rome, RM, Italy; and M. Hirschi, W. Thiery, A. El-Kenawy, and C. Yang

12:00 AM
The unprecedented heatwave in Mexico and Texas during June 2023: Character, context, and physical drivers
Dmitri Kalashnikov, Washington State University Vancouver, Vancouver, WA; and D. Singh

12:00 AM
Creating a Climatology of Extreme Heat in the Carolinas
Lily Raye, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and K. Dello and T. Glotfelty

12:00 AM
Global Human Fingerprints on Daily Temperatures in 2023
Daniel M. Gilford, PhD, Climate Central, Inc., Princeton, NJ; and A. Pershing, J. Giguere, F. Otto, L. Casey, and M. Fleury

12:00 AM
Historical and Future Windstorms Affecting the Northeast US: Their Impacts and Origins
Fred Letson, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY

12:00 AM
Variability and Trends in Tropical Precipitation Derived from Satellite-Based Precipitation and Comparison with Climate Model Outputs
Guojun Gu, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and R. F. Adler

12:00 AM
Projected Future Changes in Bomb Cyclones by the HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA Multimodel Ensemble
Jiaxiang Gao, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan; and S. minobe, M. J. Roberts, R. Haarsma, D. Putrasahan, E. Scoccimarro, L. Terray, and P. L. Vidale

12:00 AM
Analyzing the Climatology of Tornado Outbreaks Relative to Extratropical Cyclones.
Lauren Ann Kiefer, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and D. R. Chavas, D. T. dawson II, and L. Wang

12:00 AM
Impacts of Climate Change on Future Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest
Tyler J. Mercurio, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and C. M. Patricola

12:00 AM
Diverse impacts of global warming on derechos in the United States
Jianfeng Li, PNNL, Richland, WA; and L. R. Leung, P. Ullrich, Z. Feng, J. Fan, Y. Qian, and C. R. Homeyer

12:00 AM
Climate Informed NOAA Precipitation Frequency Atlas of the United States
SANDRA PAVLOVIC, NWS, Tuscaloosa, AL; NWS, Tuscaloosa, AL; and F. Salas, F. Ogden, E. P. Clark, M. St. Laurent, C. Trypaluk, D. Unruh, A. Jordan, and R. S. S. Mantripragada


Extreme Precipitation
Hosts: (Joint between the 38th Conference on Hydrology; and the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
Scientific Challenges for NOAA Atlas 15 Projections of Heavy Rainfall Design Values
Kenneth E. Kunkel, North Carolina State Univ., Asheville, NC

12:00 AM
Predictability of a Succession of Three Extreme Precipitation Regimes (EPRs) in eastern North America in February 2019
Yeechian Low, McGill Univ., Montreal, QC, Canada; and J. R. Gyakum

12:00 AM
Emergent Relationship Between Extreme Precipitation and Temperature: E3SM Performance and the Impact of Spatial Resolution.
Faisal Mohammad Alvee, University of Connecticut., Storrs, CT; and G. Wang, X. Sun, L. R. Leung, and H. Hu

12:00 AM
Investigation of Ensemble-Based Nowcasting for Predicting Excessive Rainfall within the MRMS System
Steven M. Martinaitis, Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations (CIWRO) and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Anthony, D. Meyer, and S. Rearden

12:00 AM
Using an Ensemble Prediction System to Evaluate the Factors Influencing the Stationary Behavior of a Landfalling Atmospheric River over Central California
Ivan Leonel Fontanez, SUNY, Aguas Buenas, PR; Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn

12:00 AM
Contributions to Changes in Extreme Precipitation over the Northeast US in 25-km GFDL SPEAR
Bor-Ting Jong, NOAA GFDL, Princeton, NJ; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and T. L. Delworth, H. Murakami, and W. Cooke

12:00 AM
A High-Resolution Numerical Simulation of the "7.19" Extraordinary Heavy Rainfall in Henan Province Under Topographic Effect
Han Li, Henan Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Zhengzhou, China

12:00 AM
Influences of Large-scale and Meso-scale Circulation Patterns on Warm Season Precipitation in South China
Wenbin Chen, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 32, China; Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and H. Yuan

12:00 AM
An Analysis of Excessive Rainfall Events and Suwannee River Streamflow Response
Nicole Ashley Casamassina, NWS, Peachtree City, GA

12:00 AM
Multi-storm analysis of satellite informed streamflow for landfalling tropical cyclones.
Alka Tiwari, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and K. A. Cherkauer, W. W. Tung, F. D. Marks Jr., ScD, and D. Niyogi

12:00 AM
How Does Climate Change Affect Precipitation for Contrasting Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Evolutions? A Case Study of Three Atlantic Hurricanes
Katy E. Hollinger, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

12:00 AM
Orographic Precipitation from Tropical Cyclones in a Changing Climate: Hurricane Ivan (2004)
Amanda Marie Sinning, NC State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

12:00 AM
Climate Change Amplification of Short-Duration, High-Intensity Rainfall may Increase Postfire Debris-Flow Hazard in the Southwestern United States
Matthew A. Thomas, USGS, Golden, CO; and A. C. Michaelis, N. Oakley, J. W. Kean, and V. A. Gensini, PhD, CCM

12:00 AM
Using Average Recurrence Intervals to Identify Intensity Risk in the Day 1 Time-period
Sarah Marie Trojniak, CIRES-CIESRDS @ NOAA/NWS/WPC/HMT, College Park, MD; and J. Correia Jr., W. M. Bartolini, and J. A. Nelson Jr.

12:00 AM
Characterizing High Intensity Precipitation Within Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers Along the West Coast of the United States
Parker Malek, Portland State University, Portland, OR; and P. C. Loikith


Session
Frontiers in Earth System Modeling
Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
Impacts of Clouds and Convectively Induced Atmospheric Heterogeneity on the Surface Energy Balance in the Energy Exascale Earth System Land Model
Seth Colston, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and I. N. Williams

12:00 AM
The Navy Earth System Prediction Capability: Overview and Future Developments
Matthew A. Janiga, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Allard, C. Barron, W. Crawford, M. Flatau, D. Herbert, G. Jacobs, T. Jensen, D. Kuhl, R. Linzell, F. Liu, J. McLay, E. J. Metzger, C. A. Reynolds, J. Ridout, E. Rogers, C. Rowley, J. Shriver, O. M. Smedstad, P. Thoppil, T. Townsend, and T. Whitcomb

12:00 AM
Momentum Transport in Boundary-Layer Wind Climate Simulations and its parametrization by the higher-order closure scheme Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB): challenges and opportunities
Emanuele Silvio Gentile, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and M. Zhao, V. E. Larson, and C. M. Zarzycki

12:00 AM
Evaluation of a Novel High-Resolution Climate-Scale Simulation using the Model for Prediction Across Scales - Atmosphere (MPAS-A)
Allison C. Michaelis, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL; and J. DiGilio, L. Getker, F. Cannon, C. A. Davis, R. D. Torn, D. F. Steinhoff, L. Delle Monache, G. M. Lackmann, W. A. Robinson, B. Guan, and F. M. Ralph


Session
Heat Waves: Mechanisms, Predictability and Prediction
Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
Stickiness: A New Variable to Characterize the Temperature and Humidity Contributions toward Humid Heat
Catherine Christine Ivanovich, Columbia University, New York, NY; and A. H. Sobel, R. Horton, and C. Raymond

12:00 AM
Comparing the causes and unusualness of the Texas heatwaves in 2022 and 2023
Carl J. Schreck III, North Carolina State Univ., Asheville, NC; and J. Barsugli, D. Coates, D. R. Easterling, K. E. Kunkel, Z. M. Labe, PhD, J. E. Uehling, R. Vose, and X. Zhang

12:00 AM
Are the Extreme Marine Heatwave Events in the Central-eastern Tropical Pacific Predictable 30–60 Days in Advance by NUIST CFS1.1 Model?
Lin Lin, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

12:00 AM
A physical analysis of summertime North American heatwaves
Bin Yu, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and H. Lin, R. Mo, and G. Li

12:00 AM
A New Class of Metrics for Quantifying the Intensity of Heat Waves Based on Relative Entropy
Augustin Vintzileos, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD

12:00 AM
Contribution of changes in temperature mean, variability and persistence to heat wave occurrence in urban environments
Dan Li, Boston University, Boston, MA; and W. Liao and L. Wang

12:00 AM
On the Extratropical Influence of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on Heat Extremes over Northwestern North America
SANDRO W. LUBIS, PNNL, Richland, WA; and Z. Chen, J. Lu, S. M. Hagos, and L. R. Leung

12:00 AM
Not Just a Number: Intra-Hour Heat Metric Variability
Emily Nagamoto, Duke University, Durham, NC; NWS, Raleigh, NC; and G. T. Hartfield and D. Leins


Session
Land Use and Land Cover Change - Interactions with Weather and Climate
Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
Indirect Biophysical Effect of Global Urban Land Expansion on the Surface Climate
Keer Zhang, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and B. Fang, K. Oleson, L. Zhao, C. He, Q. Huang, Z. Liu, C. Cao, and X. Lee

12:00 AM
Quantifying the impacts of an urban area on clouds and precipitation patterns in downwind regions: a modeling perspective
Giacomo Moraglia, University of Notre Dame, South Bend, IN; Univ. of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN; and P. Crippa, S. C. Pryor, and X. Zhou

12:00 AM
Extreme Rainfall Variations in Response to Urban Land Use/Cover: Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor High Spatial-Temporal Resolution Data-Based Evidence
Junaid Ahmad, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX; and M. Sajjad and J. Eisma

12:00 AM
Estimating the Effects of Vegetation Change on Carbon Sequestration and the Relative Impacts of Albedo in the Mid-Atlantic USA
Vikrant Sapkota, The Pennsylvania State Univ., STATE COLLEGE, PA; and C. E. Forest and J. D. Fuentes


Land-Atmosphere and Land-Ocean Interactions
Hosts: (Joint between the 38th Conference on Hydrology; and the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
Sensitivity of Weather Forecasts to Soil Moisture Perturbations in Coastal Regions
Kevin A. Biernat, National Research Council, Monterey, CA; and P. M. Finocchio and J. D. Doyle

12:00 AM
Hydrometeorological Drivers of Summertime Temperature Variability Over Western US Land Surfaces
Lily N. Zhang, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and L. R. Vargas Zeppetello and D. S. Battisti

12:00 AM
The SMOPS Blended Soil Moisture Climate Data Record
Jifu Yin, NOAA, College Park, MD; and X. Zhan, J. Liu, H. Meng, and R. Ferraro

12:00 AM
Riding the Waves of Climate Change: Unveiling the Connection Between Rising Sea Levels and Precipitation
Chandler Michael Pruett, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; NASA, Hampton, VA

12:00 AM
INFERRING SURFACE FLUX PARTITIONING OVER LAND FROM AN EVOLVING ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER
Briah Davis, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA; and P. A. Dirmeyer

12:00 AM
Analysis of the SMAP Daily Soil Moisture Time Series through Power Spectrum-Adjustment Method Utilizing Additional Datasets
Nazanin Tavakoli, GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY, Fairfax, VA; and P. A. Dirmeyer

12:00 AM
Land Atmosphere Coupling Strength and its Impact on Precipitation during North American Summer
Madhusmita Swain, University at Albany, Albany, NY; SUNY Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY; and C. R. Ferguson and D. Fitzjarrald

12:00 AM
Enhancing Noah-MP model representation of fire impacts on land surface conditions
Cenlin He, NCAR, Boulder, CO; NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Abolafia-Rosenzweig, F. Chen, A. Dugger, and D. J. Gochis

12:00 AM
Key Underlying Dynamics of Ocean-Land-Air Interactions during the Landfall of TS Bill (2015)
Jinwoong Yoo, University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD; NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. A. Santanello Jr.

12:00 AM
Subgrid surface heterogeneity and land-atmosphere interactions: a hierarchy of parameterizations for global climate models
Finley Miles Hay-Chapman, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and P. A. Dirmeyer, M. D. Fowler, T. Waterman, and N. Chaney

12:00 AM
Soil Moisture-Latent Heat Flux Coupling in Climate Modeling: Insights and Implications from the Offline Land Model
Daisuke Tokuda, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and P. A. Dirmeyer


Session
Large-Scale Atmospheric Dynamics and Climate: Jet Streams, Storm Tracks, Stationary Waves, and Monsoons
Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
Dynamical importance of the trade wind inversion in suppressing the southeast Pacific ITCZ
Alex Omar Gonzalez, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and I. Ganguly, M. Osterloh, G. Cesana, and C. A. DeMott

12:00 AM
Coupling between Hadley Circulation Strength Variability and Wind-stress-driven Ocean Circulation is Hemisphere Dependent
Mahdi Hasan, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and S. Larson, K. McMonigal, W. A. Robinson, and A. Aiyyer

12:00 AM
Storm Track Response to Uniform Global Warming Downstream of an Idealized Sea Surface Temperature Front
Sebastian Schemm, ETH, Zurich, ZH, Switzerland; ETH, Zurich, Switzerland

12:00 AM
The Role of Topography in Shaping Southeast US Winter Precipitation
Benjamin O Johnson, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and T. L. Delworth

12:00 AM
Insights on the North American Monsoon from Climate Simulations with Altered Topography
Benjamin O Johnson, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and T. L. Delworth

12:00 AM
Seasonal Prediction of Wintertime North Pacific Blocking: What Are We Capturing and Missing?
Mingyu Park, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and N. Johnson

12:00 AM
Present-Day Model Stationary Wave Biases Impact 21st Century Seasonal Precipitation Projections for the Southwestern United States
Kevin M. Grise, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and X. Liu

12:00 AM
Accurate Column Moist Static Energy Budget in GISS ModelE3
Kuniaki Inoue, CCSR, New York, NY; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY; and M. Kelley, A. Fridlind, M. Biasutti, and G. S. Elsaesser

12:00 AM
Vertical and Regional Dependence of the Hadley Cell's Upwelling Response to Increased CO2
Molly E Menzel, PhD, GISS, New York, NY; and C. Orbe

12:00 AM
Uniform Warming of Sea Surface Temperatures explain Blocking Reduction in Warming Simulations, but Pattern Changes are Important too
Veeshan T Narinesingh, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and H. Guo, S. Garner, and Y. Ming

12:00 AM
Atmospheric blocking characteristics in two storm-resolving GCMs
Edgar Dolores Tesillos, Institute of Geography, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern, BE, Switzerland; and O. Martius

12:00 AM
Nonlinearity of Atmospheric Circulation response to increased CO2
Darryn W. Waugh, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD; and X. Zhang, C. Orbe, I. Mitevski, and L. M. Polvani

12:00 AM
Calendar Year Climatology of Northern Hemisphere Tropopause-level Jets
Libby Orr, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI; and J. E. Martin

12:00 AM
Classification of Tropics based on the Spatio-temporal Dynamics of the Intertropical Convergence Zone from a Complex Networks Perspective
Gaurav Chopra, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India; Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India; and V. R. Unni, P. Venkateshan, S. M. Vallejo-Bernal, N. Marwan, J. Kurths, and R. I. Sujith

12:00 AM
Exploring Stratospheric Mixing using Lagrangian Coherent Structures
Jezabel Curbelo, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain; and M. Linz

12:00 AM
The influence of SST on Walker circulation strength
Margaret L. Duffy, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Back and P. A. O'Gorman


Monsoon Dynamics: Variability, Change and Impacts
Hosts: (Joint between the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
Causes of the Diverse Impacts of ENSO on the Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon: Emphasis on Physical Processes
Song Yang, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, Guangdong, China; and S. lin and B. Dong


Session
Multiyear to Decadal Climate Variability: Mechanisms, Predictability and Prediction
Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
The Most Predictable Component of a Linear Stochastic Model
Timothy DelSole, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and M. K. Tippett

12:00 AM
An Apparent Eastward Shift in United States Tornadic Activity
James Joseph Miezejeski, University of Northern Colorado, Greeley, CO; and L. Sun, J. W. Hurrell, and M. E. Franke

12:00 AM
Revisiting Oceanic Processes of Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability: Prospects for Predictability
Antonietta Capotondi, University of Colorado and NOAA/PSL, Boulder, CO

12:00 AM
Decadal predictability in a high-resolution eddy-resolving model: a signal-to-noise paradox perspective
Wei Zhang, Cooperative Institute For Marine And Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), Miami, FL; NOAA, Boulder, CO; Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and B. Kirtman, A. C. Clement, L. Siqueira, J. He, J. Xia, N. Perlin, and J. Infanti

12:00 AM
The Role of Ocean Dynamics in Interannual to Decadal Variability and Predictability of Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures
Martha Weaver Buckley, George Mason University, Washington, DC; and Y. O. Kwon, S. Larson, K. McMonigal, and G. Liu

12:00 AM
Estimating Forced Variability as a Residual: Application to Basin Mean North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature
Douglas Nedza, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and T. DelSole

12:00 AM
Distinct Mechanisms for Subpolar North Atlantic Surface Climate Change and Roles of Internal Variability under Different External Forcings
Yifei Fan, Pennsylvania State University, STATE COLLEGE, PA; and G. Danabasoglu, W. M. Kim, and L. Li

12:00 AM
Skillful multiyear to decadal predictions of sea level in the North Atlantic Ocean and U.S. East Coast
Liping Zhang, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. L. Delworth, X. Yang, and F. Zeng


Session
Oscillations and Regimes in Climate Variability
Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
A New Year-Round Weather Regime Classification for North America
Simon Haydn Lee, Columbia University, New York, NY; and M. K. Tippett and L. M. Polvani

12:00 AM
Combined Oscillation-Regime Forecasting
Mary Hendriena Korendyke, MS Climate Science, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and D. M. Straus

12:00 AM
Possible Unstable Periodic Orbits of Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations
V. Krishnamurthy, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA

12:00 AM
Linear and Nonlinear Analyses of Cross-timescale Interference Between ENSO and the MJO and Influences on Seasonal Rainfall Patterns
Laurel Anne DiSera, IRI, Palisades, NY; and A. G. Muñoz and Y. Kushnir


Session
Other Topics on Climate Variability And Change
Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
Communicating Climate Change in the Media
Lisa K. Meadows, CBS Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN

12:00 AM
On the co-variations of temperature and humidity above the tropical convective boundary layer across multiple timescale
Xianglei Huang, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and X. Chen, Z. Wei, N. G. Loeb, S. Kato, M. G. Bosilovich, K. Suzuki, and D. Goto

12:00 AM
Trends in intraseasonal temperature variability in Europe: comparison of station data with gridded data and reanalyses
Tomáš Krauskopf, Charles University, Faculty of Science, Prague 2, Czech Republic; and R. Huth

12:00 AM
Projected Changes in ENSO's Impact on the Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon under Global Warming and Associated Mechanisms
Shuheng Lin, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, Guangdong, China; and S. Yang and B. Dong

12:00 AM
Examination of Relationship Between Direct Solar Irradiance and Measured Surface Air Temperature
Ana Zaknic-Catovic P.Ge, University of Toronto Scarborough, Toronto, ON, Canada; University of Toronto Scarborough, Toronto, ON, Canada; and W. A. Gough and Z. Catovic

12:00 AM
Asymmetry of Day-to-Day Temperature Difference: Climatology and Mechanisms
Radan Huth, Charles University, Faculty of Science, Prague, Czech Republic; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Prague, Czech Republic; and J. Stryhal, T. Krauskopf, D. Navrátilová, and M. Kašpar

12:00 AM
Quantifying the Response of the North Atlantic Oscillation to a Wide Range of CO2 Forcing
Ivan Mitevski, Columbia University, New York, NY; and S. H. Lee, C. Orbe, and L. M. Polvani

12:00 AM
Quantifying Contributions of Ozone Changes to Global and Arctic Warming during the Second Half of the 20th Century
Qigang Wu, Fudan Univ., Shanghai, China; and Y. Hu, A. Hu, and S. Schroeder

12:00 AM
The Challenge of Ensemble Subset Selection for Climate Change Impacts Assessments
Adrienne Wootten, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and E. Massoud and C. Raymond

12:00 AM
On the Accordance of Atmospheric Reanalyses in the Synoptic-Scale Circulation– A Global Perspective
Jan Stryhal, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic; and R. Huth and J. A. Fernandez-Granja

12:00 AM
Projected changes in cut-off lows and their implications for North American extreme precipitation events
Henri Rossi Pinheiro, University of Sao Paulo (Brazil), Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil; and T. Ambrizzi

12:00 AM
Why is Hydrological Sensitivity Larger in AMIP Uniform Warming Experiments than in CMIP Experiments?
Wenchang Yang, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and C. Wang, B. Zhang, and G. A. Vecchi


Session
Predicting Sea-Level Rise Using Machine Learning Methodology and Economics Models
Hosts: (Joint between the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science )
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023

Predictions and Projections of Health Impacts in a Changing Climate
Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023

Session
Risk of Climate Change and Natural Hazards
Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
Wildfires and Greenhouse Gases across the Southwestern USA
Nolan Tai, Troy High School, Fullerton, CA; and X. Jiang and Y. Yung

12:00 AM
Global Assessment of Compound Tropical Cyclone-Heat Hazards in a Changing Climate
Samantha Frucht, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and J. W. Baldwin

12:00 AM
How Skillful are the CMIP6 Models in Capturing Severe Thunderstorm Environments Over the United States?
Deepak Gopalakrishnan, Central Michigan University, Mount Pleasant, MI; and C. Cuervo-Lopez, J. T. Allen, R. J. Trapp, and E. Robinson

12:00 AM
Future Changes in Severe Thunderstorm Environments Over the United States: A Synoptic-Scale Approach
Deepak Gopalakrishnan, Central Michigan University, Mount Pleasant, MI; and J. T. Allen, R. J. Trapp, and E. Robinson

12:00 AM
Mapping Heat Risks Using A Non-Parametric Multivariate Approach
Naveen Sudharsan, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX; and Z. L. Yang and D. Niyogi

12:00 AM
Future Climate Change Projections of Wildfire Risk in Western U.S.
Peter J. Sousounis, Verisk, Boston, MA; and A. Clarke and R. Grenier


Session
Seasonal-to-Decadal Earth System Prediction
Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
An extratropical contribution to the signal-to-noise paradox in seasonal climate prediction
Jeff Knight, The Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; Met Office, Exeter, United kingdom; and A. A. Scaife and A. Maidens

12:00 AM
Sea Surface Salinity as a Subseasonal to Seasonal Predictor for Summer Precipitation in the Midwest
Juliette Rocha, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and M. Arcodia, J. K. Rader, M. Fernandez, and E. A. Barnes

12:00 AM
On the role of external atmospheric forcing for the seasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoons
Annalisa Cherchi, CNR-ISAC, Bologna, Italy; and A. Alessandri, E. Tourigny, J. Acosta, and F. Catalano

12:00 AM
Assessing the Impact of Bhuvan Vegetation Data on the interactions of the Indian Ocean Dipole and ENSO in Earth System Model Simulations/Predictions.
ROSIMITHA PANDA, IITM, Pune, MH, India; and R. PV, G. C., A. Parekh, D. Patekar, R. Kakatkar, R. U. PAI, and S. Halder

12:00 AM
Impact of Volcanic Aerosol Forcing on the Decadal Prediction of Surface Air Temperature
Darshana Dasharath Patekar, IITM, Pune, MH, India

12:00 AM
Investigation of Seasonal Predictability and Forecast Skill of Arabian Peninsula Wet Season Rainfall using Recalibrated Multimodel Ensembles
Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, IRI, Palisades, NY; and A. W. Robertson, J. Yuan, M. K. Tippett, B. Singh, M. Zampieri, T. Luong, and I. Hoteit

12:00 AM
Effects of the Realistic Representation of Vegetation Variability on Climate Predictions at Seasonal and Decadal Time Scales.
Andrea Alessandri, CNR-ISAC, Bologna, Italy; and E. Di Carlo, F. van Oorschot, F. Catalano, A. Cherchi, G. Balsamo, S. boussetta, and T. N. Stockdale


Statistics and Machine Learning for Climate Science
Hosts: (Joint between the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science )
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
The Climate Change Deniers are Wrong: Evidence from NOAA's Barrow Atmospheric Observatory in Alaska
Kevin F Forbes, Energy and Environmental Data Science, Malahide, D, Ireland

12:00 AM
A Subseasonal U.S. Tornado Outbreak Index: Empirical Relationship between Outbreak-level Tornado Occurrence and the Large-scale Environment
Kelsey M. Malloy, Columbia University, New York, NY; Columbia University, New York, NY; and M. K. Tippett

12:00 AM
Constraining the Simulated Radiative Effects of Biomass Burning in Southern Africa
Victor Alejandro Sanchez, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA; Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA; and J. Carzon, M. Kuusela, and H. Gordon

12:00 AM
Parameterizing Cloud Microphysics with Machine Learning-Enabled Bayesian Parameter Inference
Kaitlyn Loftus, Columbia University, New York, NY; and M. van Lier-Walqui, H. Morrison, K. K. Chandrakar, PhD, M. A. Bhouri, and S. P. Santos


Session
Stratosphere-troposphere coupling and links to climate across time scales
Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
Tropical tropopause changes simulated in CMIP6 models
Pu Lin, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; GFDL, Princeton, NJ

12:00 AM
Impacts of Stratospheric Ozone Recovery on Southern Ocean Temperature and Heat Budget
Feng Li, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and P. A. Newman and D. W. Waugh

12:00 AM
Process-Oriented Diagnostics of Dynamical Coupling Between the Troposphere and Stratosphere in Earth System Models
Zachary D. Lawrence, PhD, CIRES, Boulder, CO; NOAA, Boulder, CO; and A. H. Butler, D. Elsbury, and J. Perlwitz

12:00 AM
Arctic Sea Ice Loss, Long-Term Trends in Extratropical Wave Forcing, and the Emergence of the QBO/Solar-MJO Connection
Lon L. Hood, University of Arizona, Lunar & Planetary Laboratory, Tucson, AZ; The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and C. A. Hoopes

12:00 AM
Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling of Extreme Stratospheric Wave Activity and the Linkage to Cold Events over North America
Gang Chen, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and X. Ding

12:00 AM
Representation and Predictability of Stratospheric Wave Reflection Events in Subseasonal Forecast Models
Jason C. Furtado, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and O. T. Millin

12:00 AM
What Drives the Spread and Bias in the Surface Impact of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in CMIP6 Models?
Ying Dai, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and P. Hitchcock and I. Simpson


Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Climate Predictability, Prediction, and Applications
Hosts: (Joint between the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
Summer Large-Scale Surface Air Temperature Bias Pattern over the CONUS in UFS Prototype 8
Nakbin Choi, George Mason Univercity, Fairfax, VA; and C. Stan

12:00 AM
Suppressing Non-ENSO forcing with ensemble mean
Priyanshi Singhai, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, KA, India; University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. Chakraborty, K. Jana, K. Rajendran, S. Surendran, and K. Pegion

12:00 AM
Diagnostic metrics for evaluating sub-seasonal predictions based on Arctic-midlatitude teleconnection
Ha-Rim Kim, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, South korea; and J. H. Sim and B. M. Kim


Toward Hydrologically Useful and Actionable Climate and Weather Model Output: Development, Evaluation, and Applications of Downscaling and Post-processing Methods
Hosts: (Joint between the 38th Conference on Hydrology; and the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
Developing Customized Downscaled Climate Projections for the Long-Term Management of the Edwards Aquifer System under a Warming Climate
Adrienne Wootten, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. Basagaoglu, P. Bertetti, D. Chakraborty, C. Sharma, M. Samimi, and A. Mirchi

12:00 AM
A Statewide, Weather-Regime based Stochastic Weather Generator for California
Nasser Najibi, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and A. Weyant, A. J. Perez, W. Arnold, A. Schwarz, A. Gershunov, R. Maendly, and S. Steinschneider

12:00 AM
Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Methods for Regional Precipitation Over CONUS Using a K-Means Weather Typing Algorithm
Nicholas D. Lybarger, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. D. Gutmann, S. Hartke, T. Eidhammer, S. McGinnis, A. J. Newman, and A. W. Wood

12:00 AM
Multi-model ensemble of precipitation changes of the Pearl River Basin and its impact to the water resources
Mengfei He, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China; and Y. Chen

12:00 AM
Leveraging Internal Variability to Assess Regional Vulnerability to Atmospheric Rivers Using a High-Resolution Atmospheric Simulation
Ethan D. Gutmann, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Harrell, M. Warner, A. W. Wood, N. Mizukami, A. Smith, W. R. Currier, T. Eidhammer, B. Kruyt, and C. D. Frans

12:00 AM
Intercomparison of Regional Reanalysis Datasets over Italy and Hydrological Applications for the Electro-energy System
Francesca Viterbo, RSE S.p.A., Milano, Italy; and F. Cavalleri, R. Bonanno, S. Sperati, and M. Lacavalla

12:00 AM
Learning data fusion and atmospheric forcing corrections using a physics-informed, differentiable hydrologic model
Kamlesh Arun Sawadekar, The Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA; and C. Shen and Y. Song

12:00 AM
Precipitation hazards viewed through "grey swan" tropical cyclones simulated by 3km Earth system models
Colin M. Zarzycki, The Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and C. N. DeCiampa


Tropical Convective Variability and Climate Change
Hosts: (Joint between the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; and the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
The Effect of SST Pattern Change on Future MJO Activity
Amanda Bowden, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. D. Maloney

12:00 AM
Environmental Moisture Influence on African Mesoscale Convective Systems
Stephanie M. Ortiz Rosario, University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez, Mayagüez, PR; and K. M. Nunez Ocasio, Z. Moon, and C. Davis


Session
Winter Weather in a Warming World
Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023
12:00 AM
Projected Changes to Extreme Freezing Rain Events over Northeastern North America
Florence Dion-Ladouceur, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada; and C. D. McCray and É. Bresson

12:00 AM
Changes in Winter Temperatures, Chilling Hours, and Projected Impacts to Tree Fruit in the Midwest United States
Trent Ford, Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, IL; and L. Chen, E. Wahle, and D. Todey

12:00 AM
Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Freezing Rain over Eastern North America
Austin R Britton, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and E. D. Mullens and D. Vemireddy

12:00 AM
Central United States Snowfall: Variability, Trends, and Large-scale Forcings
Zachary Suriano, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, KY; and G. Goodrich and C. Loewy

12:00 AM
Long-term Trend and Variability of Rain on Snow and Weather Extremes on Mount Washington
Myah Rather, NCAS-M, NW, DC; and H. Pearson

12:00 AM
Diagnosing Mid-Atlantic Icing Events and their Projected Changes in Earth System Models using Self-Organizing Maps
Michelle Gore, The Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and C. M. Zarzycki and M. Gervais