The U. S. Navy Earth System Prediction Capability: Overview and Future Developments

The Navy Earth System Predictability Capability (Navy ESPC) is a global coupled forecast system that consists of the NAVy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) atmosphere model, the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and the Community Ice CodE (CICE). This system has been developed to meet the U. S. Navy needs for high-resolution global environmental forecasts on timescales from days to months, and a unique aspect of the system is the eddy resolving ocean model at the ensemble and deterministic resolutions. Navy ESPC-E (ensemble) v1 (version 1), consisting of weekly 45-day 16-member ensemble forecasts, became operational in August 2020. Navy ESPC-E v1 products are used by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center for tropical cyclone genesis and the National Ice Center for resupply mission and exercise planning. New capabilities and upgrades in Navy ESPC version 2 include one-way coupling to the WAVEWATCH III wave model, an extension of the NAVGEM top from 72 to 110 km and improved representation of the middle atmosphere, the inclusion of arctic land-fast ice in CICE, increased NAVGEM horizontal resolution and inclusion of ocean tides in the ensemble configuration. The deterministic system, Navy ESPC-D v2, is currently undergoing operational testing by Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). The ensemble system, Navy ESPC-E v2, is currently undergoing pre-transition validation testing. Performance of Navy ESPC v2 compared to Navy ESPC v1 and stand-alone prediction systems will be summarized for both the deterministic and ensemble versions. Future upgrades to Navy ESPC will include improvements to the data assimilation and ensemble design, and eventual replacement of NAVGEM with the Navy’s next generation atmospheric model NEPTUNE (The Navy Environmental Prediction sysTem Using a Nonhydrostatic Engine).