15R2O Components of the Caribbean Low-Level Jet as Predictors of Precipitation in Belize and Guatemala During Critical Agricultural Stages.

Current operational S2S forecast systems in Central America are mostly based on direct (precipitation model outputs) sources of predictability usually constrained by the availability of NMME outputs. The predictive skill of available models is significantly lower than what was available a decade ago. Decommission of NMME models has had a negative impact on the perception of S2S systems by users in the region. Here we present a novel source of predictability based on components of the Caribbean Low-Level Jet and demonstrate its potential use to -not only gain predictive skill in the region- but to reinstate trust in the forecasting systems by end-users, including international organizations promoting Anticipatory Actions in the region to fight hunger.