What Should We All be Working on in India for Climate and Society? (Invited Presentation)

The answer to ‘What should we all be working on?’ will depend on the scope of ‘we’. If we want to be true to our narrative of climate change as a global ‘crisis’ then ‘we’ must also be global. Climate and society then become one since climate affects society and society affects climate. Society includes all other living species and the entire earth system. From the perspective of a developing country like India, this comes down to giving society the tools to cope with climate impacts on a day-to-day basis and to prepare for climate risks on societally relevant timescales of a few years to a decade. The obvious tools are early warning systems at S2S timescales and decision-support systems at multi-year to decadal timescales. The false dichotomy of basic and applied research can be avoided by focusing on advancing earth system process and predictive understandings to improve predictions at relevant timescales. Early warnings and decision-support have to focus on water, agriculture, energy, health, transportation, buildings and such. Cross-cutting themes emerge as nexuses between these.

Modest efforts on the ground in this direction include collaborations with farmers at two locations in India, viz., Nashik and Kaledhon, both in the state of Maharashtra. The Nashik system is an ecohydrological model combined with AI downscaling of S2S forecasts to deliver irrigation advisories at short to extended range for water applications and water arrangements. While the system co-development was fairly straightforward, actual implementation in terms engaging the farmers to consider the advisories and provide feedback has been a struggle. While Nashik is not a water-deficit region, Kaledhon is a village that is severely water-limited. The implementation of a living lab here has had some success with full engagement from farmers and the village administrators. Funding woes have slowed down the efforts at present.

The other climate and society solution is focused on flood forecasting for Mumbai, a coastal megacity with abundant rain. Mumbai is facing increasing variance in rainfall including heavy rain events. The current monsoon season is being forecasted by downscaling weather forecasts to station levels and an app has been developed for crowdsourcing data, especially flooding information. Water-level monitoring is being carried at nine locations. A flood model is set up and is being calibrated but no flood forecasts are being made for this season. Twitter analysis from the past years has shown tremendous value in terms of forecast validation, model calibration, and advisories.

As to what ‘we all’ should be doing, the real struggle is to work in teams to address climate impacts at hyperlocal scales with early warnings and decision-support. While India has invested massively in dynamic forecasting of weather and climate with impressive advances so far, the relatively small climate community remains relentlessly focused on publication-driven paradigm of research and education. Can publications be produced by working in the verticals mentioned above by defining linked thesis and project topics including undergraduate research/projects to address climate impacts/risks and societal issues? The funding and reward/promotion/tenure models and the student evaluation modes and the expectations at institutional levels have to evolve a new paradigm to allow such team works focused on problems. The best practical strategies for education, training, research, and self-directed and problem- or project-based learning are implementations of sustainability and/or net zero on campuses. Many efforts exist across the world with some success. The campus Living Labs are proposed here and plan to include surrounding communities and beyond with students being trained to be actual earth system doctors instead of just publication-focused researchers.

Climate awareness is touted as another climate and society issue even though evidence for sustained engagements arising out of such climate communications remain elusive. I have taken the approach of providing climate courses on YouTube ranging from basic science to S2S predictions and applications as well as adaptation and sustainability. I have also served a climate course for kids. Such free education tools need to be combined with opportunities to participate in Living Labs on campuses and in communities. Community ownership of these living labs will likely be the best bet for success. And community engagement can only occur if the tools we offer show steady progress in helping individuals, communities, governments and firms with managing climate risks and becoming quantifiably resilient over time.

Clearly, we cannot bring science to serve societies unless governments and private sectors are also engaged fully. Without mainstreaming day-to-day climate impact management and sustained climate resilience building into fiscal policies and budget processes, we all will fail. Climate-and-society is not a natural science problem at the last mile but a social science problem with socioeconomic and sociopolitical as well as national security implications. While climate scientists cannot be expected to cover the gamut, we all need to be end-to-end by making real connections to society in its full and messy glory. Making climate actions resilient to constant social and political perturbations is not possible without effective climate solutions.

Climate change is not really a crisis if we continue to live a normal life worrying about publications, funds, promotions and awards. It is a challenge as well as a monumental opportunity to serve society with solutions for water, agriculture, energy, health, transportation, buildings and more. Isolated approaches to blue sky climate research chews into valuable resources. In a zero-sum world, we all cannot afford to be seen as being insulated from the real-world climate impacts in people’s backyards. We all are extremely vulnerable to political attacks precisely because we have not moved beyond the strong or even alarmist climate messaging to working in teams for climate solutions.

A global challenge requires a global approach and we all must mean all of humanity. Concepts such as One Health are steps towards an earth system approach to health, but a One Climate paradigm has to emerge where we all are not the center of the universe, and we are not the saviours. We are all simply here to serve society to deal with come what may from climate change.