Wildfire Climatology Helping to Inform Fire Weather Forecasting at NOAA's Storm Prediction Center

Fire weather is a fast-growing field of research due to recent severe events causing extensive damage and loss of life. Scientists at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and throughout the National Weather Service (NWS) are developing tools to better forecast fire weather to provide those in high-risk areas adequate preparation for wildfires. Having an understanding of climatology trends is essential for forecasting fire risk areas in the future. Data from the Fire Program Analysis Fire Occurrence Database spans the years 1992 to 2020, creating a 29-year collection of data near the 30-year standard for examining climatology. This data allows for a study of climatological trends in wildfire location, size, number, and occurrence time of year. Another useful tool is examining the probability of a fire occurring at any location for a given day, month, or season. Current available SPC products include daily climatologies, but analysis of the new data creates climatologies for fire risk areas on the monthly, seasonal, and yearly scale. Statistical analysis of the data shows a significant increase in the mean size of fires throughout the country and in the number of fires greater than 5000 acres. Regional trends reveal variations from the overall observations, including a strong increase in fire size in the Western U.S. Additionally, only wildfires in the contiguous United States (CONUS) have been used to create a mapped climatology in the past, leaving out Alaska and Hawaii. Mapping these risk areas helps expand wildfire prediction and forecasting for these locations, which are also being adversely affected by climate change. By understanding which areas are becoming more prone to fires, in particular large fires, more time and resources can be allocated to the locations in preparation for damaging events.