An Overview of Global Verification in the Environmental Modeling Center Verification System (EVS)

The NOAA/NWS Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) is currently developing version 2.0 of the EMC Verification System (EVS)—a real-time software system used to verify and validate forecasts from operational models included in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) numerical modeling suite. EVS produces verification statistics operationally for many of NCEP’s global and regional models, as well as a subset of global models from international modeling centers, using the Model Evaluation Tools (METplus) developed by the NCAR/NOAA Developmental Testbed Center (DTC). EVS verification graphics are produced operationally using Python and are routinely disseminated to the public via the EMC Verification website.

The operational verification of NCEP’s global models is a critical component of EVS. This presentation will discuss the global verification in EVS version 1.0, including both deterministic and ensemble skill scores, as well as the global verification that will be added in EVS version 2.0. Noteworthy parameters that will be added in EVS version 2.0 include: 1) ozone mixing ratio, 2) wind direction, 3) sea ice extent, 4) aerosol optical depth, 5) fine particulate matter (PM2.5), 6) outgoing longwave radiation, and 7) U/V wind anomalies. Existing wave verification (e.g., significant wave height) will be performed using additional validation datasets, including buoys, ships, and satellites. New plotting capabilities included in the latest version of METplus (e.g., reliability diagrams) will also be added in EVS version 2.0.