ECMWF Forecast Improvements and Plans in our 50th Anniversary Year

The latest update to the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) was implemented operationally in Autumn 2024. IFS Cycle 49r1 sees a major upgrade to the IFS model and associated data assimilation system including, among many other changes, advanced use of two-metre temperature observations, increased resolution of the ensemble of data assimilations (EDA) and activation of the stochastically perturbed parameterisations (SPP) scheme for all model uncertainty applications. This upgrade substantially improves critical weather parameters such as 2m temperature and 10m wind speeds.

ECMWF will mark its 50th Anniversary in 2025 with a series of special events celebrating the past, present and future of Numerical Weather Prediction. A major operational upgrade (named Cycle 50!) will be implemented, along with a raft of exciting new AI data-driven products. Our special anniversary year will also see ECMWF pushing the boundaries of resolution in Destination Earth Digital twins, and production of the much-anticipated Copernicus ERA6 climate and atmospheric composition reanalyses.

Finally, we have a formalised a new and exciting longer-term strategy to ensure ECMWF continues to deliver accurate, global forecasts of the full Earth system through a synergistic use of physics-based models accelerated and augmented with AI-based forecast products, increasingly available with an open data policy.