Co-producing Understanding of a Changing Arctic and Implications for Sea Ice Prediction Needs (Invited Presentation)

The Arctic environment is changing at an unprecedented rate with rapid warming, sea ice loss, and coastal erosion underway. These changes have a direct and immediate impact on local communities, affecting travel, hunting and coastal infrastructure. As a result, indigenous food security is under threat. Here we discuss collaborative work between scientists and indigenous knowledge holders that is designed to gain a holistic understanding of changes underway in the Arctic and their implications for local communities. We focus on a case study of how declining sea ice and other environmental changes are influencing the access to Pacific walruses in the Bering Sea. This case study informs prediction needs for specific sea ice and related environmental metrics and we explore the changing predictability of these quantities using simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM).