Development Status of KIM Ensemble Prediction System for Seamless Global Sub-Seasonal Prediction

This study presents an overview of the development of the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) within the Korean Integrated Model (KIM), which is designed for operational use at the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) for global medium- to extended-range forecasts. The KIM system, which integrates ensemble representations and coupling with ocean, sea ice, and wave models, is now extending its prediction capabilities to cover periods up to a month. Recently, a 20-year hindcast experiment (2001-2020) was conducted, alongside forecasts for the past few years. We evaluate the forecast performance of the KIM EPS, emphasizing its effectiveness in predicting extreme weather events both globally and within the East Asian region. Statistical verification is applied to deterministic and probabilistic forecast products, with further exploring different ensemble sizes. Additionally, the study examines the sources of predictability in the extended range, particularly focusing on phenomena such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW). Further, the potential for scenario-based forecast products is being studied, which we will introduce in this presentation