Probabilistic MJO predictability

The MJO predictability limit suggests statistically the MJO should be predictable within that limit. But how the statistics should be defined and used to guide prediction applications is unclear. In this study, the MJO predictability limit is redefined in terms of the probability of MJO events that are expected to be predictable within a given error tolerance level as a function of the lead time. This definition not only moves away from the conventional definition of the predictability limit in terms of a single lead time, but it also connects the MJO predictability limit to MJO predictability sources. An illustration is given on how the redefined MJO predictability can be derived from a specific dataset and how it can be applied to other data. How this new definition of MJO predictability may be adapted to measure prediction skills is also discussed.