Comparative Risk Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Impacts on Florida's Gulf and Atlantic Coasts Under Climate Change

This study evaluates the differential impact of tropical cyclones (TCs) on Florida's Atlantic and Gulf Coasts under historical and future climate scenarios. Utilizing the RAFT model, we generated 900,000 synthetic TCs driven by historical and projected future climate data from the CMIP6 ensemble. We analyzed TC metrics, including lifetime maximum intensity, seasonality, rapid intensification, and return periods for peak TC intensity, to compare impacts on the Atlantic versus Gulf Coast. Our findings indicate that under a high-emissions future climate scenario, TCs in Florida are projected to intensify by about one category for all return periods, with the Atlantic Coast experiencing the most significant increases. The Gulf Coast shows a stronger correlation with climate oscillations, enhancing predictability over the Atlantic Coast. Projections suggest a 50% increase in Atlantic Coast landfalls and a 26% increase for the Gulf Coast, with a 33% increase for Florida overall. These insights highlight the growing TC risk for Florida under changing climatic conditions and underscore the importance of targeted mitigation strategies.