Impact of Tropical Storms on Wind Energy Resilience in the Eastern United States and Offshore

Understanding the impacts of extreme weather and climate events on energy systems is crucial for enhancing resilience and ensuring the reliability of renewable energy infrastructure. Our study investigates these impacts, focusing on future tropical storms' influences on wind energy across the Eastern United States and offshore regions.

To begin, we assess the performance of tropical cyclones (TCs) in high-resolution climate models, with particular attention to seasonal cycles. Our findings reveal that while seasonal cycles of TCs are generally well-reproduced, certain biases persist—in particular, an underproduction of TCs in September in the Atlantic and in July in the Eastern Pacific. This may be attributable to the current E3SM RRM only partially covering the marine development and cyclogenesis regions for Atlantic TCs. To address this, we developed a new mesh extending into these key regions, improving TC climatology accuracy and incorporating the significant impact of waves on model performance.

We also link climate simulations with the risk analysis for tropical cyclones (RAFT) framework to study wind turbine resilience in changing climates. Our analysis predicts significant increases in TC intensity and frequency, particularly for Category 4 and 5 storms, with potential shifts in TC tracks closer to the U.S. coast. This suggests a potential increase in TC frequency by up to 42.4% for the Gulf Coast and 35.4% for the Atlantic Coast. The majority of Atlantic offshore wind farms face increasing threats, underscoring the importance of addressing knowledge gaps and implementing robust strategies to protect renewable energy infrastructure from the escalating risks posed by climate change-induced TCs.