The Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch at the National Hurricane Center - Providing the U.S. Coast Guard with Impact-based Decision Support Services to Keep Blue Water Mariners Safe

The Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) within the National Hurricane Center makes forecasts of wind speeds and wave heights, and issues marine wind warnings year-round. TAFB’s forecast and warning responsibilities include the Atlantic Ocean north of the equator to 31°N and west of 35°W (including the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) as well as the eastern North Pacific Ocean north of the equator to 30°N. These wind warnings include tropical storms and hurricanes as well as winter storms, tradewind gales, and severe gap-wind events (for example, the “Tehuantepecers” south of Mexico).

The United States Coast Guard (USCG) has areas of responsibility that extend well beyond those of TAFB, with potential weather hazards affecting the fleet and their missions over the ocean, inland U.S. waterways, and flood-prone U.S. land areas. Although the USCG is responsible for search and rescue missions that may occur due to weather hazards, they are also vulnerable to severe weather and must protect their own fleet and crews from these hazards. Despite the often severe impacts of the weather on USCG fleet and facilities, the USCG has no formal meteorology capability and relies upon the National Weather Service (NWS) for weather forecasts and impact-based decision support services (IDSS). The NWS-USCG partnership is formalized in a renewed national-level Memorandum of Agreement between NWS and USCG.

This presentation details the interactions between TAFB and USCG including sending TAFB’s products by USCG radio transmitters and providing IDSS through Spot Forecasts and extreme weather briefings. The development of a CONOPS document detailing how NWS will provide training, routine predictions, Spot Forecasts, and IDSS to the USCG nationwide will also be discussed.