Impact of WindBorne Data on NCEP Operational GFS Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

Accurate prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) largely relies on the accuracy of model initial states over the ocean, where atmospheric observations are relatively sparse compared to land. WindBorne Systems has developed a novel balloon-based observation system that deploys constellations of balloons to collect data throughout the troposphere over extended periods. These WindBorne weather balloons gather atmospheric vertical profiles of pressure, temperature, humidity, wind speed, and wind direction, providing valuable in-situ data to fill observation gaps over the ocean. This study investigates the impact of assimilating WindBorne balloon data on NCEP’s operational Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions for TC track and intensity. We aim to understand how these supplementary WindBorne observations influence GFS analysis and forecast errors for TCs. The superobbed WindBorne data used in this study are from the summers of 2022 and 2023. The current operational NCEP GFS version 16 (GFSv16) is utilized to assess the impact of WindBorne balloon data. We conduct global control experiments (with settings identical to operations) and WindBorne experiments (incorporating and assimilating WindBorne data). Results indicate that WindBorne observations improve GFS forecasts over the North Atlantic basin and positively affect GFS forecasts for tropical cyclone tracks. We will present detailed results on the impact of WindBorne observation data on GFS TC forecasts for 2022 and 2023.