Session 4 Tropical Cyclones: Data Assimilation and Forecasting

Monday, 13 January 2025: 4:30 PM-6:00 PM
221 (New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: Seventh Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones
Submitters:
Suzana J. Camargo, PhD, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University and Anthony C. Didlake Jr.
Organizers:
Chau Lam Yu and Robert G. Nystrom
Cochairs:
Robert G. Nystrom and Chau Lam Yu

Papers:
4:30 PM
4.1
Predictions of Tropical Waves and Cyclogenesis at ECMWF
Sharanya J. Majumdar, Ph.D., University of Miami, Miami, FL; and L. Magnusson, Q. A. Lawton, R. Emerton, M. Maier-Gerber, J. P. Dunion, and J. Zawislak

4:45 PM
4.2
Evaluation of Probabilistic Tropical Cyclogenesis forecasts utilizing Machine Learning Based Methods
Alan Brammer, CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; and K. Haynes and A. G. Libardoni

5:00 PM
4.3
Development and Implementation of GEFS Based Probabilities for the Tropical Cyclone Logistical Guidance for Genesis (TCLOGG)
Ryan Michael Remondelli, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and D. J. Halperin and R. E. Hart

5:15 PM
4.4
Have Improvements in Hurricane Intensity Forecasts Been Driven by Better Track Predictions or Achieved on Their Own?
Chandler Xavier Jenkins, UCAR, Richland, WA; and F. Judt and R. G. Nystrom

5:30 PM
4.5
Impact of WindBorne Data on NCEP Operational GFS Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
Xingren Wu, NOAA, College Park, MD; Axiom at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and V. S. Tallapragada, T. Hutchinson, J. Creus-Costa, D. T. Kleist, and L. Cucurull

5:45 PM
4.6
A Dynamically Adapting Forecast Cone Based on Ensemble Spread
Michael Nicholas Barletta, UAlbany, North massapequa, NY

Validation of the COAMPS-TC Ensemble Prediction System and a Summary of Recent Upgrades

Recorded Presentation
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
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