Impact of HRRR Model Physics Development on the Forecast of Hub-Height Winds and Wind Ramp Events during WFIP3

Incorporating more renewable energy into the electric grid is indisputably a part of the strategy to mitigate climate change. To make this incorporation more efficient and reliable, numerical weather prediction models need to be able to predict the intrinsic nature of weather-dependent renewable energy resources, so grid operators can plan accurately the amount of energy they will need from each source (e.g., wind, solar, fossil fuel, etc.). The third Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP3) is a multi-seasonal (winter 2023 - summer 2025) offshore field campaign off the coast of New England, in the Northeastern United States, aimed at improving the predictability of offshore wind energy resources by enhancing our understanding of the structure and variability of the marine atmospheric boundary layer.

A comprehensive set of in situ, profiling, and scanning instruments have been deployed on the coast, on islands, and offshore by the US Department of Energy, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and other university and private partners. This observational data set is used to evaluate the currently operational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model and an updated version of the HRRR that is run for testing and development. This presentation will use case studies to investigate the improvements.in the forecast of hub-height winds and wind ramp events (rapid changes in wind speed over short periods of time) by the updated version of the HRRR over its operational version.