Impact of Model Physics Development for WFIP3 on Offshore Wind Forecasts during Low-Level Jet Events

Offshore wind energy development in the United States is accelerating, with proposed projects exceeding 40 gigawatts of installed capacity. For the optimal integration of offshore wind energy into the electrical grid, accurate wind forecasts are crucial. However, there are still substantial, unsolved challenges with forecasting winds and turbulence over the ocean. Low-level jets are just one phenomenon that often poses challenges to forecast models. To help overcome the challenges, the US Department of Energy (DOE), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and other university and private partners are currently conducting a multi-seasonal offshore field campaign off the coast of New England in the Northeastern United States. Since November 2023, a comprehensive set of remote sensing and in situ meteorological instruments have been installed at several sites at the coast and on islands. These continuous land-based observations are complemented by observations on a barge and ship during several multi-week-long periods. This data set has been used to evaluate the currently operational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model and an updated version of the HRRR that is run for testing and development during WFIP3. In this study, we investigate how modifications to the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino eddy diffusivity/mass flux (MYNN-EDMF) turbulent mixing scheme and the Thompson-Eidhammer aerosol-aware microphysics scheme impact the forecasts of low-level jets during selected case studies.