Challenges and Opportunities in Forecasting Arctic Mixed-Phase Clouds (Invited Presentation)

Mixed-phase clouds are a fundamental part of the Arctic climate system but are challenging to forecast given the difficulty of maintaining liquid in clouds at cold temperatures in state-of-the-art forecast systems. The ability to model these cloud systems is limited by uncertainties in ice formation processes and how to parameterize the sub-grid interaction between cloud liquid and cloud ice, among other things.

This talk will review the current state of modeling and forecasting Arctic mixed-phase clouds and discuss how recent field campaigns provide challenges and opportunities for advancing the ability to model these cloud systems. For example, measurements from the ARCSIX campaign of cloud ice number concentrations in relatively warm mixed-phase stratocumulus systems provide the opportunity to advance the understanding of ice formation mechanisms. In addition, simultaneous measurements of aerosols, turbulence, and microphysics in recent campaigns provide the opportunity to evaluate and develop forecast systems with interactive aerosols. However, significant challenges still remain and needs for continued development will be discussed.