Hyper-local Climate Projections Using Convective-Permitting Simulations in the Southern Florida Region

Capturing hyper-local variability within current global climate models is not yet viable, which poses problems for decision makers at the regional level, as many users are unable to use data that are on a coarse spatial grid. With this consideration in mind, our work aims to provide regional climate projections in the southern Florida region, particularly for extreme temperature and precipitation events, by downscaling climate model data as input to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model used for future climate simulations. Using a nested model configuration allows the inner domain to reach a finer spatial resolution, which allows convective-permitting simulations to be performed within our area of interest. The model simulations take a “time-slice” approach, where the large-scale climate drivers are prescribed through the sea surface temperature (SST) and updated through the entirety of the simulation. The preservation of high-resolution SST has demonstrated importance to capturing low frequency fluctuations of Southeast U.S. rainfall by more accurately resolving ocean mesoscale features such as the Florida Current and the Gulf Stream. These model simulations are suited to accommodate stakeholder needs, which are planned to aid in the creation of regional climate modeling tools for use by southeastern Florida counties, in particular Miami-Dade County.