How Global Warming is Transforming ENSO Teleconnections and Rainfall Patterns in Thailand and Vietnam?

Thailand and Vietnam are located in Southeast Asia, near the Indo-Pacific warm pool, which is one of the warmest oceanic regions in the world. This proximity results in a climate characterized by high temperatures and humidity. El Nino–Southern oscillation (ENSO) has a strong impact on the climate of Thailand and Vietnam. Understanding how the connection between ENSO and the Thailand and Vietnam rainfall variability changes in future can inform regional policymakers and business communities to develop adaptation strategies for managing risks in evolving global climate change. This study employs bias-corrected climate change projection data derived from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models. Five models namely GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, and UKESM1-0-LL were used in conjunction with three future warming scenarios–SSP585, SSP370, and SSP126. Results indicate that there is a strong seasonality in the ENSO-Thailand Vietnam rainfall variability. The models used in this study show varying response to the ENSO and the rainfall in two countries. By quantifying and visualizing future changes in regional rainfall, the analysis conducted in this research can inform about future regional climate trends, fostering informed decisions and productive changes.