Assessing the Utility of the Warn-On-Forecast-System for Aviation Focused Forecasting and IDSS through the Aviation Weather Testbed

The Warn-On-Forecast System (WoFS), developed by the National Severe Storm Laboratory (NSSL), was originally designed to leverage the increasing ability of storm scale models to predict individual thunderstorms and their hazards, targeting severe weather impacts at watch to warning scales (0-6 hour lead times). While originally targeting severe weather impacts, it is a tool tailored to forecast the overall evolution of thunderstorms, which is a main focus of aviation short term forecasting.

In 2022, the utilization of WoFS for aviation forecasting was one of the themes explored during the Aviation Weather Testbed (AWT) Summer Experiment. Findings indicated that it had strong potential to complement and enhance AWC convective forecast products like the Traffic Flow Management Convective Forecast (TCF).

In 2024, NSSL and the AWT once again collaborated to further assess the potential of WoFS to enhance forecasting activities and IDSS at both nationally focused AWC and regionally focused Center Weather Service Units (CWSUs). During this evaluation, which lasted 4 weeks from late June through mid July, two daily WoFS domains were selected based on expected convective activity and its potential impacts to air traffic within the National Airspace System (NAS). AWC and CWSU forecasters were encouraged to use WoFS and provide feedback on its utility for their aviation specific forecasting needs.

This presentation will discuss the evaluation design as well as preliminary results.