Temperature Change Climatology for Lightning Launch Commit Criteria on the Eastern Range: A Collaborative Research Project between Orange County Public Schools and the 45th Weather Squadron

This research was conducted as a part of a collaborative research program between Orange County Public Schools (OCPS) in Florida and the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS). The 45 WS is the U.S. Space Force unit that provides comprehensive weather services to partners and customers at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Patrick Space Force Base, and NASA’s Kennedy Space Center, also known as the Eastern Range. The goal of this collaboration has been to provide valuable research for the 45th Weather Squadron while giving OCPS Advanced Placement^® Statistics and Calculus students the opportunity to see real world application of mathematical topics learned in their classes. Students learn valuable lessons in leadership, organization, teamwork, project management, scheduling, and communication.

The Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) are a complex set of ten distinct weather rules that are designed to avoid natural and rocket-triggered lightning strikes to inflight space launch vehicles. Determined by the Lightning Advisory Panel, a group of world-class lightning experts, they are the basis for NASA Standard (NASA-STD) 4010: Lightning Launch Commit Criteria for Space Flight, used by Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) licensed space launch operators to comply with 14 CFR 450.163 and 14 CFR 450.165 to mitigate risks to public safety. These rules must be adhered to for all rocket launches from US soil, including at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station and Kennedy Space Center.

Out of the ten rules, nine require monitoring of cloud growth to the height of various temperatures to determine the potential for natural and rocket-triggered lightning. Along the Eastern Range, which includes Cape Canaveral Space Force Station and NASA’s Kennedy Space Center, atmospheric temperatures have traditionally been determined with meteorological soundings conducted at KXMR (Cape Canaveral Space Force Station) in the hours leading up to the launch. However, with the increasing launch pace on the Eastern Range and desire for cost-cutting by launch service providers, fewer of these balloon launches are occurring. Instead, the Launch Weather Team must rely on a combination of previous soundings and model data for the values. Expanding upon a 2017 study, students involved in the collaborative research project produced an updated analysis to look at both the climatology of LLCC important temperature heights and the probability of exceeding certain height change thresholds at these levels at specific time steps (generally the average time between regularly scheduled synoptic balloons). This research has the potential to reduce the number of meteorological soundings necessary as insights from this analysis are utilized.