Is Weather GO for Launch? A Lightning Launch Commit Criteria Climatology at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station and Kennedy Space Center

This research was conducted as a part of a collaborative research program between Orange County Public Schools (OCPS) in Florida and the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS). The 45 WS is the U.S. Space Force unit that provides comprehensive weather services to partners and customers at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Patrick Space Force Base, and NASA’s Kennedy Space Center, also known as the Eastern Range. The goal of this collaboration has been to provide valuable research for the 45th Weather Squadron while giving OCPS Advanced Placement^® Statistics and Calculus students the opportunity to see real world application of mathematical topics learned in their classes. Students learn valuable lessons in leadership, organization, teamwork, project management, scheduling, and communication.

The Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) are a complex set of ten distinct weather rules that are designed to avoid natural and rocket-triggered lightning strikes to inflight space launch vehicles. Determined by the Lightning Advisory Panel, a group of world-class lightning experts, they are the basis for NASA Standard (NASA-STD) 4010: Lightning Launch Commit Criteria for Space Flight, used by Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) licensed space launch operators to comply with 14 CFR 450.163 and 14 CFR 450.165 to mitigate risks to public safety. These rules must be adhered to for all rocket launches from US soil, including at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station and Kennedy Space Center.

For this project, students designed new and innovative ways to quality control, organize, analyze, and visualize the data from an LLCC database updated and maintained by the 45 WS. The analysis produced summary statistics and violation rates of each of the ten rules broken down at different time scales, such as by season and month. The students also conducted advanced frequency analysis to determine simultaneous and sole violation rates for each rule. These analyses allowed for the creation of educational graphics that may be used for briefings and training at the 45 WS. These efforts provide significant operational benefits to the 45 WS and Launch Service Providers, especially as local launch operations continue to increase at a record pace. The 45 WS and the Lightning Advisory Panel also use the results to guide research to improve the LLCC.