Plans for Version 5 of the National Blend of Models

The National Blend of Models (NBM) is a nationally consistent and skillful set of calibrated forecast guidance based on a blend of both National Weather Service (NWS) and non-NWS numerical weather prediction data and post-processed model guidance. The goal of the NBM is to create a highly accurate starting point for the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) grids. Improvements to the NBM are considered a critical component of the increased NWS focus on Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS), and efforts to improve and expand the probabilistic NBM output are a high priority.

Numerous improvements will be made to Version 5.0 of the NBM, currently targeted for an operational implementation in late 2025. They include a greater consistency across elements, improved winter products, probabilistic fire weather elements and wave heights, numerous updates to quantitative precipitation forecasting, improvements to wind speed forecasts over land and water, usage of high-resolution ECMWF data, and initial preparations for upcoming code retirements at NCEP. Discussions of the changes and examples of impact on NBM products will be shown.

The presentation will conclude with a brief discussion of future plans for the next-generation MDL post-processing system. Experts from across the NOAA operational and research communities will gather to plan the new system, and an initial blueprint overview will be shared.