Efficacy of Grenada’s Hurricane Forecast and Warning Services and Communication Process during Hurricane Beryl

While intense hurricanes have always been a historical staple in the Caribbean’s hazardous weather profile, higher ocean temperatures have been contributing to some notable extreme weather events. Grenada and its dependencies, Carriacou and Petite Martinique, have experienced major hurricanes occasionally, with the most memorable being Category-3 Hurricane Janet in 1955, and Category-5 Hurricane Ivan in 2004, both of which stymied the country’s developmental progress.

As the tri-island state of Grenada continued to recover from Hurricane Ivan, exactly 20 years on, it faced one of the worst hurricanes in its history in July 2024. On 1 July 2024, deadly Category-4 Hurricane Beryl impacted all three islands—the Grenada mainland, Carriacou, and Petite Martinique—between 10:00 a.m. and 4:00 p.m. (1400-2000 UTC), with the most catastrophic winds hammering Carriacou, Petite Martinique, and the northern part of mainland Grenada.

Associated Impacts

During Hurricane Beryl’s passage, the maximum 24-hour rainfall recorded was 261 mm (10.4 inches), at Lauriston in Carriacou, while at Point Salines Airport in the south of mainland Grenada, 49 mm (2.0 inches) was recorded. The maximum sustained 10-minute mean wind recorded at Point Salines peaked at 80 kt (92 mph), while the maximum gust peaked at 105 kt (120 mph).

The death toll of Hurricane Beryl across Grenada was confirmed as three (3), with one death on mainland Grenada and two on Carriacou. The powerful winds, torrential rains, and huge waves of Hurricane Beryl damaged residential and commercial properties, removing roofs, leaving the majority of the smaller island residents homeless. Significant damage was sustained on Carriacou and Petite Martinique, with upward of 98% of homes damaged or destroyed. Northern Grenada suffered damages to structures, agriculture, and forestry. Many of the damaged public buildings included schools and churches that were used as shelters. By 2 July 2024, thirteen (13) shelters housing 383 persons were opened, and the Minister of Education announced that schools would remain closed for the rest of the term. In Carriacou, the airport terminal was destroyed, while five (5) of six (6) medical facilities were damaged.

The powerful hurricane also caused severe flooding and landslides, washed out roads, downed trees and power lines, devastated agriculture production, and battered coastal areas. The storm surge impacted heavily on the islands, which were littered with beached vessels, some sunken or partially sunken in harbors. There were state-wide power outages, but by July 2nd, 70% of electricity was restored on the mainland, while the government stated that restoration of electricity on the smaller islands would take a few weeks as the electrical grid has to be rebuilt.

Warning Services

On Friday, 28 June 2024, at 8:45 a.m., the National Hurricane Center (NHC) operationalized the RA IV Hurricane Committee Operational Plan (HCOP) practice of holding virtual coordination calls, for collective action and consensus on a tropical disturbance labeled AL95. During the meeting, there was near certainty that AL95 would develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 12 hours and traverse the southeastern Caribbean around Monday. After the coordination call, the Grenada Meteorological Service, in collaboration with the National Disaster Management Agency (NADMA), issued its first weather information advisory at 11:00 a.m. on 28 June 2024, on the disturbance set to become Hurricane Beryl. The public was advised to continue preparedness activities. At 5:00 p.m., Tropical Depression 2 formed about 1225 miles (1970 km) ESE of Barbados and, at 11:00 p.m. strengthened into Tropical Storm Beryl 1785 km ESE of Barbados.

Following another coordination call, discussions between the Grenada Meteorological Service (GMS), the NHC, and the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service, which has responsibility within the RA IV HCOP framework for issuing tropical cyclone warnings for Grenada, yielded consensus that Grenada should be placed under tropical storm watch. At 11:00 am, Saturday, 29 June 2024, the government of Trinidad and Tobago, on behalf of the government of Grenada, issued a Hurricane Watch for Grenada on the NHC hurricane advisory. At 8:00 p.m., a hurricane warning was issued for Grenada, with further rapid intensification being forecast.

Throughout the passage of Hurricane Beryl, the GMS duty forecaster distributed updates on Hurricane Beryl every 6 hours and as necessary following new analyses and updates. NHC updates were interpreted and edited for local usage and disseminated to the public and relevant stakeholders and media, particularly the NADMA, radio, television, and Government Information Service. The GMS also distributed its messages through YouTube Live, Facebook Live, WhatsApp, SMS text, and other social media platforms.

When the Emergency Operating Center (EOC) was activated, the GMS expert at the EOC was provided with focused and actionable messages and information every three (3) hours, which was then distributed to the public via a live broadcast. For example, on Sunday, June 30th, the GMS issued a “breaking news” live weather news release informing the residents that Hurricane Beryl had attained category 4 status. This was followed with a potential impact advisory for devastating wind damage, rainfall accumulations up to 150 mm, and a life-threatening storm surge with water levels to 9 feet above normal tide. Later on Sunday, June 30th, the government effected a state of emergency to last throughout the passage of Hurricane Beryl.

Once meteorological hazards associated with Beryl were diminished, the GMS’s updated outlook facilitated the government issuing the “All Clear” at 8:00 p.m. on 1 July 2024. This enabled the dispatching of emergency teams to clear routes, provide aid and assistance, and start restoration.

Efficacy of GMS

The GMS warning standards during Hurricane Beryl adhered to international standards, strengthened by regional collaboration and coordination, which bolstered its ability to deliver round-the-clock warnings during the hurricane. The GMS has made progressive strides in delivering its warning information, with messages now available via multiple channels. Radio and television continue to be important media for GMS warning messages, but it has expanded its reach using social media and other internet platforms, allowing messages to be received on personal devices such as smart phones. Importantly, hurricane warning messages appear to be well understood and acted on, particularly where public safety is involved.