Preparedness, Impact and Response: The St. Vincent and the Grenadines Meteorological Services Handling of Category-4 Hurricane Beryl

Introduction

St. Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) faces significant risks from natural hazards such as hurricanes, landslides, floods, volcanic eruptions, and droughts[1]. Hurricanes have historically been the most damaging, causing extensive harm and financial losses. For instance, Hurricane Tomas in 2010 resulted in 49.2 million USD in damages and affected over 5,000 people[2].

The Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Meteorological Services (SVGMS) is responsible for weather forecasts and warnings. SVGMS provides critical multi-hazard early warning systems and ongoing support for response and recovery. Recent modernization efforts include (a) automating surface observing systems and real-time data acquisition in line with WIS 2.0 standards, (b) expanding automatic weather stations, and (c) adopting CAP format weather warnings with the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO). This document assesses SVGMS's performance before, during, and after Category-4 Hurricane Beryl in 2024.

Hurricane Beryl's Development and Path

According to the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA)[3] and SVGMS, Hurricane Beryl set several records during its destructive path, including its impact on SVG. On 28 June 2024 at 11:00 p.m., a tropical depression that formed earlier that day was upgraded to Tropical Storm Beryl. Located at latitude 9.3° North and longitude 43.6° West, approximately 1,220 miles (1,965 km) east-southeastESE of SVG, Beryl had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and higher gusts. Favourable conditions, including warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and minimal wind shear, led to rapid intensification. Beryl was expected to become a major hurricane before reaching SVG. The projected path showed the storm would approach or cross SVG on 1 July 2024.

By 5:00 p.m. on 29 June 2024, Tropical Storm Beryl had intensified to a hurricane, located about 831 miles) ESE of SVG, with maximum winds of 75 mph (120 km/h). Rapid intensification continued overnight, reaching Category 2 with 100 mph winds by 5:00 a.m. on 30 June. Within six hours, Beryl escalated to Category 4 with winds of 130 mph. This rapid 90 mph increase in wind speed occurred over 36 hours. Despite a brief weakening to Category 3 during an eyewall replacement cycle, Beryl regained Category 4 status by 8:00 a.m. on July 1, setting the record for the earliest Category 4 hurricane, surpassing Hurricane Dennis from July 8, 2005.

Impacts

On 1 July 2024, Hurricane Beryl made landfall in SVG as a Category-4 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph. The hurricane caused moderate to heavy rainfall, ranging from 22.0 mm to 112.5 mm, and significant storm surges. The Grenadines suffered severe damage, including building destruction and at least six fatalities, with five (5) individuals missing at sea[4].

By 2 July, 1,362 people were sheltering in 49 facilities, and approximately 700 had been evacuated from Union Island[5]. The storm caused 80-98% damage to buildings across Union Island, Bequia, Mustique, Canouan, Mayreau, Palm Island, and Petite St. Vincent. This included homes, a hospital, an airport and its control tower, a power plant, solar panels, and a desalination plant. Mainland St. Vincent also experienced widespread power outages, complicating communication.

SVGMS's Response During Hurricane Beryl

SVGMS's response to Hurricane Beryl was notable for its effectiveness. The forecasts, warnings, and practices implemented were timely, precise, and actionable. SVGMS communicated critical information consistently through mainstream media and social media platforms like Facebook.

SVGMS issued its first advisory on 26 June 2024, almost six days before the storm impacted SVG. By 28 June, following a virtual coordination call led by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) under the WMO RA IV Hurricane Committee Operational Plan, the fifth advisory reported the disturbance's development into a tropical depression, with possible watches and warnings for SVG. A yellow weather advisory urged residents to prepare for potential flooding and landslides.

On 29 June, SVGMS warned of Beryl's strengthening and likely transition to a hurricane. By 11:00 a.m., following another coordination call with NHC and the Barbados Meteorological Service, which has responsibility for SVG under the Hurricane Committee framework, SVGMS recommended placing the country under a hurricane watch, forecasting hurricane conditions within 48 hours. The advisory detailed potential impacts, including strong winds, heavy rainfall, flooding, high surf, and hazardous marine conditions.

At noon, SVGMS issued a color-coded 72-hour warning: Yellow for 30 June, Red for 1 July, and Orange for 2 July. The advisory also noted another potential disturbance for 3 July. On 1 July, SVGMS issued its 14th advisory, maintaining Red Level warnings for flood and high surf, and provided information on a new disturbance east of the islands with a 60% chance of development.

After Beryl's passage, SVGMS downgraded its warning to Orange on 2 July, maintaining a flash flood watch and advising continued vigilance. On 3 July, the report sustained the Orange Level flash flood watch with Yellow Levels for wind and marine conditions. By 4 July, the flood warning was lifted, and a Yellow Advisory was issued for Saharan dust haze affecting visibility.

Results

SVGMS has established robust processes for timely and relevant advice during hurricanes and extreme weather. Its active participation in regional cooperation and hurricane forecasting has improved consistency and confidence in warnings.

SVGMS’s engagement with local and regional stakeholders has strengthened its ability to respond to storms like Hurricane Beryl. Established Standard Operating Procedures, defined roles, and specific actions ensure effective public warning. SVGMS prioritizes coordination with Disaster Management agencies, the National Hurricane Center and RA IV Hurricane Committee to facilitate seamless operations.

Over time, SVGMS’s forecasts, warnings, and analyses have been vital for government, industry, and community decision-making. During Hurricane Beryl, SVGMS’s effective forecasts and warnings enabled adequate public preparation, reducing potential loss of life and damage to infrastructure.

[1] Environmental Migration Disaster Displacement and Human Security Policy Assessment Tool- St Vincent and the Grenadines Country Analysis. Available at https://www.iom.int/sites/g/files/tmzbdl486/files/documents/2024-06/st-vincent-and-the-grenadines-country-assessment-analysis.pdf

[2] United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (UN ECLAC)

2011 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines: Macro Socio-economic Assessment of the Damage and Losses caused by Hurricane Tomas. LC/CAR/L.294. Available at https://info.undp.org/docs/pdc/Documents/BRB/76749_LC-CAR-L%20294%20-%20SVG%20DaLA%20REPORT.pdf

[3] CDEMA- Hurricane Beryl. Available at https://www.cdema.org/index.php/hurricane-season/tropical-storm-beryl

[4] https://www.searchlight.vc/news/2024/07/12/mv-guidance-still-missing/

[5] CDEMA Situation Report 2, 3 and 4 https://www.cdema.org/images/2024/07/CDEMA%20SITREP3_Hurricane%20Beryl_July_4_2024.pdf