Updating ProbCom: Adding to a Living Systematic Review of Probability Information Communication in Weather Forecasts

The presentation of probabilistic information is an important consideration for risk communication in the weather and climate spheres and, as such, has become the focus of a plethora of studies in recent years. While this expansion has increased knowledge about risk communication in weather and forecasts, the wide variety of findings can make it difficult for weather communicators to determine best practices. To aid researchers and forecasters in identifying effective communication methods, Ripberger et al. reviewed, cataloged, and synthesized the body of probabilistic risk communication publications which specifically study how communication of probabilities impacts the public’s interpretation and response. Relevant studies were identified using electronic search databases, previous literature reviews, and citation chains. To be included in the review, studies had to focus on the fields of weather and climate, report new research, and be “generalizable, transparent, and repeatable.” This process began in 2019 and culminated in a “living systematic review,” which ultimately included 327 individual studies and took the form of an interactive platform, called ProbCom, in 2022. From this synthesis of literature, Ripberger et al. came to two main conclusions: members of the public are generally able to understand properly communicated probabilistic risk information and the inclusion of this information aids decision-making and hazard response. This project sought to update and expand on the work done by Ripberger et al. by incorporating new research studies focused on probabilistic risk communication in weather and climate published from 2021 to present, thus ensuring that the living systematic review and key recommendations are up-to-date with current knowledge.