Evaluating the Canadian Risk Assessment and Communication Framework- Putting the Theory into Practice

Evaluating the Canadian Risk Assessment and Communication Framework- Claude Masse and Rebecca Wagner, Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada

Abstract 1. Theory of the Risk Assessment and Communication Framework

Many national meteorological services worldwide are moving toward adopting impact-based forecasting (IBF) and early notification (EN) systems. This transition is driven by the need for actionable information that goes beyond traditional weather forecasts, helping communities better prepare for and respond to weather-related hazards. The Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) of Environment and Climate Change Canada has been exploring the implementation of IBF and EN in parts of Canada. The MSC has developed a Canadian Risk Assessment and Communication Framework (RACF), which follows the continuous risk communication and value-adding processes described by Lazo and Mills (2021).

We have been working on a tier-alerting vigilance system with Emergency Management Organizations (EMOs) and wanted to evaluate the robustness of the RACF. To test it, we developed a synoptic winter storm playbook. This Winter Storm Playbook aims to help ECCC achieve timely action and response before, during, and after a major winter storm, fostering a collaborative approach to increase resilience in supporting our community, emergency agencies, and first responders.

Our approach to building the playbook involved conducting interviews with various internal and external partners. We developed a workflow that synchronizes actions by internal contributors, such as scientists, operational and service meteorologists, and interactions with EMOs. Communications to different target audiences (EMOs, public health and safety organizations, and individuals) were incorporated and aligned to respect the RACF.

Abstract 2: Evaluating the Canadian Risk Assessment and Communication Framework Part II (Case study) Claude Masse and Rebecca Wagner.

Using the established Risk Assessment and communication framework we initiated an evaluation process in winter 2024 to validate the workflow.

We studied the continuous risk communication throughout the phases of a typical winter storm event: Early Notification (Awareness), Timely Notification (Action-oriented), Crisis (During the event), and Post-event (Evaluation).

We did a comparative study of four winter events to evaluate the synoptic scale playbook against the RACF. While each event had its own nuances, we were able to illustrate the effectiveness of our risk communications on mitigating impacts to affected Canadians.

The lessons learned and recommendations will serve to improve our performance as well as support our continuous improvement as we move to implement risk tiered alerting in Canada in 2025.