Dynamical Seasonal Prediction before and after Cane, Zebiak and Dolan (1986) (Invited Presentation)

The presentation will describe the state of Dynamical Seasonal Prediction (DSP) before and after Cane, Zebiak and Dolan published a real time prediction of El Nino in 1986, and thus revolutionized Dynamical Seasonal Prediction (DSP). This was the first time ever that a coupled Ocean-Atmosphere dynamical model was used to predict the evolution of the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature patterns with considerable skill. This heralded the dawn of climate prediction. The presentation will describe the current state of DSP, the inability of the current global coupled models to predict the global circulation and rainfall patterns even with accurate prediction of tropical sea-surface temperature patterns, and prospect for the future.