Climate change impacts on Great Lakes Basin temperature and precipitation extremes using CMIP6 downscaled simulations

The unprecedented change in intensity, frequency of extreme precipitation, and temperature due to the changing climate have considerable socio-economic impacts. Climate change may impact numerous sectors in the Great Lakes region, which plays a crucial role in the economies and societies of the United States and Canada. In this study, CMIP6 GCM simulations were downscaled to resolve convection using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Changes in temperature and precipitation during the mid-century (2040–2050) over the Great Lakes basin region are projected concerning a baseline of 1995–2005. Observations illustrate that baseline admirably represents extreme precipitation and temperature climatology for most locations in the domain. The mid-century simulations with pessimistic emission scenarios show some robust and distinguished gradients in temperature instead of general warming noticed throughout CONUS in previous works. The spatial distribution of change in precipitation is moderate compared to the end-century projection in prior studies but can translate the climate change signals from the GCM to the regional level. CESM2 GCM with lake signature has added value to the high-resolution downscaling over the Great Lakes region. This region is anticipated to rise by 0.75° to 3.41°C in temperature and a warmer mid-century is projected over the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec, and Minnesota in the USA. With an overall precipitation increase of 18%, The most robust signal of projected wetting is noticed for the fall and winter seasons with a percentage increase of 28.4% and 18.6% respectively. Current work provides an improved spatial (and temporal) representation of precipitation and temperature extremes closer to the scale desired by decision-makers and other researchers who use rainfall as an input to other models.