Avoiding a Malthusian Future for Africa in a Changing World

Our world is divided starkly into what has become known as the Global North and South. The former group, largely made up of wealthier nations, is occupied largely by stable or even decreasing populations, an increasing median age and low levels of food insecurity and absolute poverty, although pockets of relative poverty do exist. Many nations of the South have managed to reduce population growth rate and improve food insecurity - problems mitigated to a large degree by the Green Revolution’s development of high-yield hybrid grain species especially in irrigated regions and by increasing economic development. However, the global South continues to face great challenges. Over the last decade, food insecurity has risen substantially across the South. In particular, according to that UN FAO, over 50% of the inhabitants of Africa exist in moderate or severe food insecurity a considerable increase during the last decade.

To some degree, the Green Revolution was motivated to avoid a “Malthusian tragedy,” whereby exponential population growth would overcome linearly increasing food production leading to famine, poverty and a deterioration of society. Yet, the hypothetical catastrophe was avoided principally by agricultural improvement, most recently through the Green Revolution in second half of the 20^th century.

However, population growth in Africa remains high, currently comprising about 18% of the global population with doubling time scales of about 20 years and projected by the UN to occupy nearly 40% of the global population by the end of this century. Africa’s problems are exacerbated by a fickle and variable weather and climate, the lack of irrigable agricultural land, and civil disorder and conflicts. Some 95% of arable land is currently rainfed, without irrigation. The question arises: what can be done to increase yield to help alleviate poverty, food insecurity and hunger where it exists in the South, especially in Africa?

Clearly, the development of new higher-yield dryland crops is imperative. But the utilization of probabilistic environmental forecasts that allow weather- and climate-related risk to be assessed allowing the possible instigation of mitigatory actions that may optimize yields. We present a number of examples of the utility of probabilistic forecasts that have practical application globally but especially in the developing world.

Such forecast products are produced by a number of nations and conglomerates but are often unavailable and not easily understandable to those who could utilize them to make better agricultural decisions if such forecast information was geared for local utility and made accessible.

We propose the formation of a consortium of global weather/climate forecasting groups that will make available probabilistic forecasts to users worldwide. With the use of Artificial Intelligence, locally specific forecasts would be made available and tailored for specific crops and the particular needs of any farmer or agricultural group. The greatest problem is the development of infrastructures that ensure dissemination to farming communities and the provision of useful and usable information. We present a scheme that may approach such goals and hopefully allow the reduction of food insecurity throughout the South and, in particular, the avoidance of an African dystopia. At the same time, such efforts may build a bridge to a future in a world of changing climate.