Systematic Evaluation of Assimilating Ground-Based Remote-Sensing Profiling Observations of the New York State Mesonet for Forecasting of Severe Weather Events in New York State

The New York State Mesonet (NYSM) is a unique state-operated network in the United States, comprising 127 weather stations across New York State, with 17 stations equipped with advanced profiling systems. This network integrates surface data with kinematic profiles from Doppler Wind Lidars (DWLs) and thermodynamic profiles from Microwave Radiometers (MWRs). These comprehensive, continuous observations from the surface through the lower atmosphere below 2.5 km support various applications, including air quality monitoring, human health assessments, severe storm prediction, and renewable energy forecasting. While a previous study showed the positive impact of assimilating the wind profiles from NYSM DWLs on prediction skill for a single case, this study uses multiple high-impact thunderstorm cases to statistically assess the observational impact of NYSM data assimilation with ground-based remote sensing profiling observations.

In this study, we selected 10 convection initiation cases in New York State in 2024. We will assimilate the surface station data, thermodynamics and wind profiles from NYSM and evaluate their observational impacts on the prediction of convection and related hazards (e.g., strong gusts, hail) using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) and the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-ARW). In addition to exploring the statistical impact of assimilating NYSM observations using various metrics for predictions, we will analyze the effect of assimilating the MicroPulse Differential absorption lidar (MPD) and the Uncrewed Aircraft System (UAS) observations collected with the NYSM during the April 2024 Eclipse field campaign. These preliminary analyses will assess the impact of assimilating surface and profiling observations currently available form the NYSM, as well as evaluate the impact of potential future enhancements (UAS, MPD) of NYSM.