Analyzing the Impact of Assimilating UAS Measurements from Recent Field Experiments in NSSL's Warn-on-Forecast System

One limitation of the convection-allowing modeling system is the inadequate representation of storm environments in model initial conditions, particularly in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). This is largely due to the unavailability of high spatial and temporal resolution ABL observations. In recent years, the emerging Uncrewed Aerial Systems (UASs) have shown promise in measuring the ABL temperature, moisture, and winds. This study conducts several ensemble data assimilation and prediction experiments to assimilate UAS measurements from the PERiLS 2022–2023 and OUTFLOW 2023–2024 field campaigns into NOAA National Severe Storm Laboratory’s Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS). The goal is to assess how these in-situ UAS ABL observations impact WoFS’ short-term probabilistic predictions of the environment and hazards associated with severe weather. Results from the experiments will be summarized and presented at the conference.