Sitting Ducks: Preparing for unprecedented extremes

Given the changing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, many communities are under-prepared for the types of events that are more common in today's (and tomorrow's climate). In particular, communities that have recently "gotten lucky" and have not experienced an extreme event in recent years might be underestimating the probability of such an event, especially if that probability is changing. In this talk, we will present results from a national-scale UNSEEN analysis of trends in extreme weather events. Using these results, we will highlight regions that are plausible "sitting ducks": where extremes are becoming more frequent, but communities have little experience with such events in the past 30 years. We will describe community collaboration and scenario planning exercises that use UNSEEN model results to simulate and prepare for such events.