Public Perceptions of Evolving Probabilistic Tornado Forecasts and Warnings

The advancement of forecasting and warning capabilities has introduced new opportunities for communicating tornado risks as they evolve over space and time. However, little is known about how members of the public might interpret and use such information, especially when conveyed probabilistically. This study is part of a larger project that aims to better understand people’s perceptions of and responses to evolving probabilistic tornado forecast and warning information, including their perspectives about the tornado likelihood, tornado severity, trust in the information, and intended protective behaviors. We examined evolving probabilistic tornado warnings that update on the order of minutes, and probabilistic tornado threats that evolve from a 2-hour, “warn-on-forecast” lead-time to a warning. We report on results from structured in-person interviews conducted with residents of the southeastern U.S. during the summer of 2024. Our findings will be used to develop actionable, evidence-based recommendations for evolving probabilistic tornado forecast communication.