15A.4 Model Uncertainty - MIP

Thursday, 16 January 2025: 2:30 PM
206 (New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hannah Christensen, Univ. of Oxford, Oxford, OXF, United kingdom; and J. Beck, L. Bengtsson, L. Bernardet, J. Berner, M. B. Ek, E. Groot, F. H. Lambert, W. Lfarh, K. M. Newman, R. Roehrig, K. Singh, X. Sun, and K. Williams

MU-MIP is an international project which seeks to characterise the systematic and random component of model error across many different climate models. An initiative of the WCRP Working Group for Numerical Experimentation and the WWRP Predictability, Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting Working Group, MU-MIP includes representatives of 13+ institutes spanning three continents. This is the first coordinated intercomparison of model error. This presentation will introduce the initiative.

I will begin by describing the proposed protocol and highlighting key research questions. I will then outline progress to date. Currently we have four modelling centres producing simulations from five models to contribute to the intercomparison, with a first focus on a 40-day simulation period for a region over the Indian Ocean. I will present a first look at the results, with a focus on analysis of the random component of model error, used to assess the physical motivation for stochastic parametrisation schemes.

More participants are welcome. Please see our website for details of how to get involved.

https://mumip.web.ox.ac.uk
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