Bridging the Weather and Climate Product Suite: Public Interpretation, Understanding, and Utility of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Products

Over the last 10 to 20 years, research efforts have focused on bridging the gap of predictability between short-term weather events and long-term climate forecasts, allowing scientists to begin forecasting some weather events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale. The S2S timescale primarily focuses on the predictability of phenomena two weeks to two months in advance, providing key information such as the probability of above-average or below-average temperature and precipitation that different partners of weather information can use to make decisions from. Following advances in predictability at this timescale, products have been developed to capture this information and share it with these different users of weather information. While there is some research highlighting how partners, such as emergency managers, utilize weather information and products on these timescales, little research has investigated the public interpretation and utility of these S2S products. To answer this question, we asked several S2S-product specific questions on Wave 5 of the Oklahoma Meso-Scale Integrated Socio-Geographic Network Panel Survey (M-SISNet) to adults living in Oklahoma to understand (1) if members of the public are aware weather can be forecast on this timescale and (2) the different impressions individuals have towards these products. Within our study, we provide an initial analysis investigating the use, trust and understanding members of the public have towards these products. Further, we analyze participants’ opinions of the economic value of S2S forecasts, and begin investigating the differences that exist within their willingness to support and/or fund these research efforts based on demographic factors and current usage of these products.