Session 2 Advancements in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Precipitation and Drought Predictions and Forecasts, Part II

Monday, 13 January 2025: 10:45 AM-12:00 PM
352 (New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 13th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise
Submitters:
Christine Bassett, University of Washington, Applied Physics Laboratory, Springfield, OR; Mark Olsen, NOAA/OAR/OWAQ, Silver Spring, MD and David Benson, Office of Ocean and Atmospheric Research (OAR), Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, MD
Cochairs:
Christine Bassett, University of Washington, Applied Physics Laboratory, Springfield, OR; Mark Olsen, NOAA/OAR/OWAQ, Silver Spring, MD and David Benson, Office of Ocean and Atmospheric Research (OAR), Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, MD

This session focuses on the dynamic processes influencing subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) precipitation patterns and drought conditions, exploring recent advances in S2S prediction methodologies. Contributions are invited on the impact of large-scale oceanic, land, and atmospheric phenomena including, but not limited to, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and their impacts on precipitation and drought predictions. Presentations that utilize statistical and dynamical models, as well as multi-model ensembles, to improve the reliability of S2S precipitation and drought forecasts are encouraged.

This session also seeks to address the challenges of translating scientific advancements into actionable tools for sectors like water resource management, agriculture, and disaster preparedness. Emphasis will be placed on collaborative approaches that integrate hydrological models, S2S and climate forecasts, and end user engagement to develop resilient water management practices. Contributions that incorporate user feedback to refine forecasts and improve usability in decision-making contexts, as well as those that evaluate the effectiveness of these tools in real-world applications, are particularly encouraged. This session aims to provide a comprehensive overview of current capabilities in predicting precipitation and drought conditions on S2S timescales and their implications for practical applications

Papers:
10:45 AM
2.1
Improving Statistical Prediction of Subseasonal CONUS Precipitation Based on ENSO and the MJO by Training with Large Ensemble Climate Simulations
Cheng Zheng, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and H. Kim, E. LaJoie, S. He, and E. K. M. Chang

11:00 AM
2.2
Coupled WRF-Hydro and Ufs Modeling to Improve Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictions
Erin M. Dougherty, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Tokuda, K. M. Sampson, M. B. Ek, R. Cabell, D. Rosen, A. Dugger, and P. A. Dirmeyer

11:15 AM
2.3
Probabilistic Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasts of Drought in the United States
Hailan Wang, CPC, College Park, MD; and M. Park, L. Xu, A. badger, H. Wang, J. Gottschalck, B. Pugh, J. Leung, and D. Dewitt

11:30 AM
2.4
Bridging the Weather and Climate Product Suite: Public Interpretation, Understanding, and Utility of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Products
Benjamin Jacob Fellman, Institute for Public Policy, Research, and Analysis, Rockville, MD; School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; and J. T. Ripberger and E. R. Martin

11:45 AM
2.5
Seasonal Land-surface Hydrology Prediction and Predictability over CONUS
William D. Scheftic, The University of Arizona, Yuma, AZ; and M. A. Brunke, P. D. Broxton, A. Ouyed, and X. Zeng

Recorded Presentation
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
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